The first polls show Victor Orbებასn winning in Hungary

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbალისტიn, the ultra-nationalist, defeated the opposition coalition in this week’s election, according to the first poll published since the polls closed.

Orb .n’s formation, Fidesz, would add 49% of the vote, while the opposition coalition For a United Hungary – which unites left-wing parties, environmentalists, liberals and the populist right – would get 41%, according to the Democratic Institute Median.

Analysts say the war in neighboring Ukraine has benefited Orban, who presented himself to voters as a guarantor of stability in turbulent times.

The median data is not an exit poll since the poll was conducted yesterday, but it is the latest survey on voting intentions and the only one published so far since polling stations closed at 19:00 (5:00 GMT).

According to Median, Fidesz would have 121 MPs out of 199 in parliament, while the opposition would win 77 seats. The remaining MP will be from the German minority, which usually supports the formation of Orban.

Gergeli Gulias, the interior minister, said that “the first results are a source of hope.”

The official count data will be released from 21:00 pm (19:00 GMT) and turnout is expected to be very high as it reached 67.8% by 18:30, which is very similar to the 2018 figure. During the democracy period, a record electoral abundance was recorded, at 70.2%.

These elections are the closest since Orban came to power in 2010, as the six main opposition parties put aside their ideological differences and formed a united front against Fidesz.

Orb .n, 58, has ruled Hungary for the past 12 years by an overwhelming majority, which has allowed him to unilaterally approve a new Magna Carta and constitutional amendments that undermine the division of power by opposition and critique. European Union (EU).

The prime minister, a fierce critic of immigration, LGBT rights and the “EU bureaucrats”, has won the admiration of nationalists and the far right in Europe.

The head of government presented himself as a guarantor of the country’s stability and accused the opposition of involving Hungary in the war because of solidarity with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose country is being invaded by Russia.

Orban, who agrees with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he shares a conservative policy, supports EU sanctions against Moscow but refuses to supply arms to Ukraine, even banning the transit of ammunition destined for Kiev to the Magyar territory.

Hungary received nearly 400,000 Ukrainians who fled the war and the war became the subject of a campaign, with the opposition calling Orban a “mini-Putin” because of his autocratic tendencies and underscoring his growing isolation in the EU.

Opposition parties and OSCE election observers have highlighted the difficulty of defeating Orb .n because he controls most of the country’s media and has more financial means than his opponents.