Now it gets serious. In the afternoon the 133 cardinals who are entitled to vote in the Sixtine Chapel, which starts. For days the names of the favorites have been able to follow the deceased Pontifex Francis. Hungarian economists have now calculated a surprising favorite.
László á. Kóczy and Baláz’s R. Szlai played the most important theory theory of the cardinals before the papal elections. The Canadian Cardinal Michael Czerny is at the top of the list. The Budapest experts have updated a model that they had developed on the occasion of the 2013 conclusion. This saw the later Pope Francis far ahead.
The model is based on two indicators of the influence of the individual cardinals: their geographical removal of Rome and their ideological orientation. Those cardinals who took an extreme position in a dimension and in the other were moderate according to the assumption, were particularly important for the coalition formation in the conclave and therefore also desirable. The Bergoglio, chosen at the time, was considered ideologically moderately at that time, but at the same time came “from the other end of the world”, as he himself said.
“Crucial role” in the conclave
According to the provisional calculations of the two Hungarian experts, the Czech cardinal Czerny has the greatest influence in the conclave. According to this, there is a chance of 13.2 percent that the Cardin of Curium will play a “decisive role” in the advice of the papal voters, that is, necessary for majority education. Hij volgt de kardinalen Carlos Castillo Mattasoglio (Peru), Pablo Cezar Costa (Brazilië), José Cobo Cano (Spanje) en Francesco Montenegro (Italië) met 12,6 procent, Mario Grech (Malta, 12 procent), Juan, Juan José, 10,8 procent, 10,8 procent, 10,8 procent), Leonard. Omela (Spain, 9.2 percent) and Domenico Battaglia (Italy, 9.2 percent). The American Cardinal Kevin Farrell (8.6 percent), who plays a central role during the Sedis vacancy as a camerlengo (camerlengo), almost played in the top 10.
The composition of the Pope’s election committee has changed considerably in the twelve years because Francis had mentioned many cardinals outside of Europe, Kóczy said in an interview with the APA. The old continent only places a third of the Pause voters, and there are many more liberal purple carriers. The economist remains sober: “I wouldn’t bet on it.”
How does the choice work?
What does the schedule look like today? At 4.30 pm the cardinals gather in the Sixtine Chapel. Only one mood is planned. The following days there are four elections a day: two in the morning and two in the afternoon. White smoke would rise in a successful election in the morning around 10.30 am or noon. In the afternoon around 5:30 pm or 7 pm If there is no new Pope, black smoke can be expected between 12.00. and 12.30 pm and between 7 pm and 7.30 pm
Source: Krone
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