The data used by the Ministry of Health and the public to measure how a pandemic is developing has changed. Statistics that fit and start, maintained from the start of a pandemic, are broken. But not in all indicators. We analyze what we are going to know and what not, with reports that are published every Tuesday and Friday. And if the data are sufficient the deterioration of the situation is expected.
The most significant change in the indicators is related to the accumulated incident, an indicator that has been fundamental for the last two years to understand how far the virus has spread and which is being used up to the sixth wave as a guide to establishing restrictions. The new strategy, which is the result of an agreement between the regional and central governments, does not take into account all the cases, only the vulnerable and the serious, so we can not know the whole positive and, consequently, neither. Case rate per 100,000 population. “The biggest limitation is that the series is broken, but de facto it has been broken since December, it was difficult to interpret with the introduction of pharmacy tests,” said Pedro Gollon, an epidemiologist and professor at the University of Alcala de Henares.
However, in each report it will be possible to see cumulative cases in people over the age of 60, in people who have the greatest chance of COVID-19 causing a serious illness. Diagnostic tests are still indicated in this population group, so indicators can be collected.
Is this data useful, even if it is partial? “We are starting a new series with which we can understand where the contagious curve is. If we go up or down, if we approach the peak, what is the speed of growth … but it can not be. In absolute numbers, compared to the data we had before, the result of the previous monitoring system is much more intense, “explains Gallon.
Knowing how much the virus infects older people is a specific thermometer, but not the most sensitive. “It is likely that the cumulative frequency at this age is lower than in the general population, as this older population is best protected by three doses,” wrote Daniel Lopez Akuna, former WHO Director of Emergency Response for Health. This expert is critical of the new system because, in his view, it rejects “more sophisticated” alarm capabilities in anticipation of a comprehensive record of cases and future waves.
Health reports for the first time combine data from an observation system based on samples of respiratory viruses introduced before the pandemic. Some communities have already included SARS-CoV-2 in data collection. The frequency that is removed from the samples has a limitation that does not allocate the type of virus that causes each infection. “It’s not very specific. However, it can show us whether we can have a problem with the occupation of hospitals, it provides a good overview, “said Gallon in the event of the final spread of infections.
With the new system, it is impossible to calculate how many people die from SARS-CoV-2 infection. I mean, how deadly is the virus. Without data on the total number of existing cases, it is impossible to get an indicator, explained in this interview the President of the Spanish Society of Epidemiology Elena Vanessa Martinez. The calculation may occur in people over the age of 60, but it will be partial and, warns Lopez Akunia, higher than the rates observed for the general population in recent months. Because, although the elderly are vaccinated and are the population who most adhere to booster doses, they also have a high risk of death.
The new surveillance and control strategy aims to take a gravity x-ray rather than a transfer. That is why the counting of severe cases and deaths continues. There are no changes compared to the previous protocol. This is an indicator that in practice already replaces the accumulated cases when taking action.
All epidemiologists agree on ward and ICU bed occupancy rates. Without global data on accumulated cases, “we can find the tide as soon as it is with us, and this reduces the possibility of early intervention,” warns Lope Akunia. Usually, the increase in cases is repeated after two or three weeks in hospitals. Gullon is confident that people over the age of 60 and the incidence of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) will be able to anticipate changes in trends and take action if necessary.
The new strategy is conceived as a “reversible” plan if the situation worsens again, “either due to the worse evolution of gravity indicators or the emergence of new options,” the document said. Technicians determine what the threshold will be for the strategy to retreat. In addition, Autonomous Communities should maintain an “unusual” layout for COVID-19 oversight and control and ensure that “it can be reactivated” if the situation worsens.
Source: El Diario
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
