How much does the Bucha massacre follow Putin’s example in Syria and Chechnya?

When new images and testimonies are published in Bucha about the massacre in the Ukrainian city, located 27 kilometers northwest of the capital Kiev, it is more likely that Vladimir Putin acted in northern Ukraine according to a manual that has served Russia for decades. However, it cost his soldiers dearly.

First of all, the initial mistakes are noteworthy, including the underestimation of the enemy, such as the attempt to overthrow the Ukrainian leaders a few days after their invasion of Kyiv, which began in the early hours of 24 February.

Because of arrogance or because his close circle was not sincere with Putin about the limits of the Russian military capabilities, there was overconfidence in the superiority of the country’s armed forces, which is why they sought direct movement of long armor. Targets and fall into the repeated ambushes of their enemies.

When Russian paratroopers arrived outside Bucha, at the Hostomel airport, locals said they had initially disappeared from sight. They were to move quickly to Kiev, with the support of the overthrow of Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and part of the population in an attempt to establish an alternative government near Moscow.

However, Russian forces met heavy resistance and had to fight hard in Bucha and other areas, north and northeast of Kiev, only to occupy the original territory. According to the residents of the city, the Russian army reappeared a few days later with fatal consequences.

A similar scenario led to a harsh sentence imposed by Moscow in Grozny, Chechnya in the early 1990s and 2000s, and it is now accused of gathering in various parts of Ukraine. The strategy stems from the belief that brute force through indiscriminate use of artillery, which can lead to the complete destruction of the city, will bring the population to its knees.

Bucha, last on the list

In 2003, the UN designated Grozny as the most devastated city on earth. Between 5,000 and 8,000 civilians were killed during the siege of the city by the Russian army. In another context, during the Syrian war, Russian forces allied with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad took part in the 2016 battle of Aleppo and recaptured rebel-held city areas through a month-long air bombing campaign. , Women and children were killed.

In Ukraine, Bucha was the last city to be attacked by the Russian army, but Chernigov, Mariupol and Kharkiv have suffered similar treatment in recent weeks. The Russian offensive strategy consisted primarily of shutting down communications and cutting off basic electricity, gas and water services. Later, the Russian army indiscriminately bombed civilian targets. They also promised to later break it down into several cities to open humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians. They attacked and destroyed infrastructure, hospitals, bomb shelters and schools.

The Ukrainian government claims that Russia is forcibly deporting people from Mariupol to Russia. Many of those who get on buses to Russia probably do not care about their destination because it is far from the hell that has become a port city. Russia believes that in the face of such suffering, the will of the people to resist will be destroyed and there will be an alternative government, albeit dubious.

Uncertain future

Assad is still in power. In Chechnya, Putin has returned to the son of former chief mufti Ramzan Kadyrov, who has since supported Russian forces in both Syria and Ukraine. Which leads to the last step: the normalization of new institutions related to Russia. This requires a level of cynicism and weakness on the part of the West that Putin believes he has relied on for a long time: the United States and the European Union should turn a blind eye to what is happening, given that change is impossible. New normal “.

In the case of Ukraine, however, it is far from clear that terror will prevail, and the forced regrouping of Putin’s forces in the East suggests that he may have abandoned his initial ambition of total capitulation. Instead, you can try settling in the east if you can overcome the resistance in that part of the country. But it will still be a difficult path, especially if the national economy collapses due to Western economic sanctions. Another cornerstone of Putin’s shoes is that perhaps this time the West will keep its promise of solidarity with Kiev and tighten sanctions. The names of Bucha, Mariupol and Kharkov may make Zelensky cry for this purpose.

Translated by Emma Reverter