According to leading experts, in the worst case climate change could lead to the extinction of humans. “There is ample evidence that climate change could be catastrophic,” the scientists said. The world also needs to start preparing for end-time scenarios.
Despite 30 years of effort, man-made greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise. “Even excluding the worst-case scenario of climate change, the world is on track to experience a temperature increase of between 2.1 and 3.9 degrees by the year 2100.”
Under the headline “Climate Endgame: Exploring Catastrophic Climate Change Scenarios,” the authors of the US National Academy of Sciences (“PNAS”) Proceedings call for more prudent risk management and more research into the worst-case scenarios of global warming. The international team writes in the American magazine that so far we know too little about such end-time scenarios and their probabilities.
The consequences of a warming of three degrees have not yet been sufficiently investigated. The research focuses on scenarios in which the consequences of climate change are moderate. “Facing a future of accelerated climate change without considering worst-case scenarios is naive risk management at best and deadly foolish at worst,” it says.
In their article, the researchers write about the expansion of areas with extreme heat, or an annual average temperature of more than 29 degrees Celsius. According to the team’s modeling, two billion people could live in such areas by 2070, currently there are about 30 million.
“Serious Potential for Catastrophic Consequences”
This shows how complex climate effects can be. “By 2070, these temperatures and the social and political consequences will directly affect two nuclear powers and seven high-security labs harboring the most dangerous pathogens,” said study co-author Chi Xu of China’s Nanjing University. “There is a serious potential for catastrophic consequences.” For example, heat and uninhabitable areas can lead to migration, social unrest and international conflict.
The scientists write that the consequences of climate change are especially dangerous with regard to tipping points. These thresholds are like a cup on a table: if you push it to the edge, nothing happens at first — until it reaches a tipping point where it crashes. This is especially dangerous when one tipping point leads to another.
According to the authors, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has not yet sufficiently addressed the possible catastrophic consequences of climate change. According to the authors, they should be taken into account in the next report. Daniela Jacob, who herself was the lead author of a special IPCC report, also supports this.
Confront the public with worst case, right?
She doubts that such scenarios should be discussed outside of science. “That’s a step too early for me.” Jacob: “In dialogue with the public, you can’t get ahead with such end-time scenarios if you don’t yet know exactly what can happen, when it can happen and what to do to prevent the worst.”
Climate researcher Niklas Höhne, on the other hand, believes it is important to educate people about worst-case scenarios. “We have to communicate clearly what the risks are. And on the other hand say: we still have it in our hands,” says the researcher.
Source: Krone
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
