The decline in unemployment in the month in which the tourist season ends coincided with historic GDP growth or the end of long crises
August is not a good month for employment. The tourist season ends on the 31st, ending associated contracts, in addition to the poor behavior of members in sectors such as education, industry and construction. The history of the Ministry of Labor statistics supports this oft-repeated idea: Since the beginning of the 21st century, registered unemployment has always increased in August, except in three years marked by special circumstances: 2000, 2013 and 2021.
Last year, the Spanish labor market experienced its best August in its historic series, with unemployment falling by more than 82,000 people. It can be explained by the general economic upturn after the fateful year 2020, shaken by the Covid-19 pandemic that practically paralyzed the global economy. Antonio Pedraza, of the General Council of Economists, also attributes last year’s good data to support for national tourism, as international tourism still moves with restraint, and to support for domestic consumption.
But María Jesús Fernández, senior economist at Funcas, recalls that the past has been a very anomalous exercise that discourages jumping to conclusions. And Raül Segarra, a statistician specializing in the labor market, specifies some of the anomalies that could explain the drop in unemployment in August 2021: in addition to the fact that recruitment could be slightly delayed in the summer, administrative problems (that the again required job seekers to renew their demands every three months, after being suspended because it was not guaranteed that this could be done at the SEPE offices due to the pandemic and restrictions).
In any case, the observed labor market recovery in 2021 was accompanied by a 5% GDP growth, the highest in two decades.
Exactly, the expansion of the Spanish economy last year is comparable to that in 2000, when growth was also around the same 5%. And his month of August was also exceptional for employment, as unemployment fell by 4,297 people.
The other milestone of recent years is the 2013 financial year: in August unemployment fell, although minimally: by 31 people in particular. This labor market behavior can be interpreted as a symptom of the end of the protracted economic crisis that began in 2008 with the bursting of the subprime bubble and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and which continued in Europe with the sovereign debt crisis. As confirmed by María Jesús Fernández, employment started to emerge in mid-2013 and the decline in membership was more moderate.
The fact that unemployment rose in August this year should not be an alarming indicator. A Pedraza doesn’t seem like a worrying figure. This expert admits that worse data was expected. Once again, the Spanish labor market has exceeded expectations. In addition, in the years of the Spanish economy’s greatest expansion, in the mid-2000s, the number of unemployed at the end of the summer also grew, without this being interpreted as a sign of weakness.
But Pedraza warns that the forecasts for the rest of the year are not positive. The rise in interest rates, the rise in inflation and the industrial crisis suggest that unemployment in Spain will continue to rise in the coming months. Segarra, for his part, emphasizes that the Spanish labor market currently shows very strong muscle mass: “Although the figure for July was strange and a bit scary, August was good again.”
Source: La Verdad
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
