Spain hasn’t even recovered half of its GDP lost to the 2021 pandemic

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INE revises economy growth in 2021 to 5.5%, but sees decline to 11.3% in first year of coronavirus

The final revision of the Spanish economy data has cast lime and sand on the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the two years of the pandemic. In 2021, growth was finally higher than budgeted, with an increase of 5.5% compared to the originally calculated 5%. In 2020, however, GDP plummeted by 11.3%, not 10.8% as previously believed. In this way, Spain failed to recover even half of the lost ground in the first year of the coronavirus last year, weighed down by the restrictions that decisively affected the economy.

The preview of the annual national accounts prepared by the INE (National Institute of Statistics) has yielded these figures allowing for significant variations from the data initially published. The agency clarifies that the upward revision of the data for 2021 is explained by “the inclusion of the results of the 2021 household budget survey” published in June this year. As for 2020, this is explained by counting for the first time the structural economic surveys relating to that year. Since the start of the pandemic, the INE has recognized the complexity of defining all the data it publishes related to GDP (and other indicators, such as the CPI), because of the difficulties in capturing all these metrics in such a variable. surroundings.

What the INE indicates is that the greater economic growth last year is due to a larger contribution from national demand (5.2% from the initial 4.7%), ie from household consumption; and to a lower contribution from foreign demand (0.3%, compared to 0.5%). Government expenditure growth for its part was 2.9%, two tenths less than initially calculated.

In terms of foreign demand, the increase in export volume was 14.4%, compared to 14.7% estimated in March, while for imports it was 13.9%, the same figure as in the previous estimate.

With these definitive data on the table, the Spanish economy may not gain all the ground lost in the year of the coronavirus until 2024. For this exercise, the Bank of Spain estimates growth of 4.1%, plus another 2.8% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024. If we add up all these references, it would be in two years’ time when Spain’s GDP returns to the original state it had in early 2020.

Source: La Verdad

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