The agency questions the government’s projections, which estimate a rapid reduction to 3.9% next year and 2.9% in 2025
The government expects the government deficit to be significantly reduced next year. According to their calculations, the economy is growing at 2.1% – which is not shared by economic organizations, which estimate an advance of about 1% – 1.5% – which will serve to settle the accounts. But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is questioning these calculations and predicts that the sharp increase in spending, mainly due to pensions (which will account for 42% of the total expenditure of the General Budget next year) will increase the public deficit. fired at least until 2027.
Pensions are updated on the basis of inflation data for this year (estimated to be about 8.5%), which represents an increase in government expenditure of 11.4% to allocate 190,000 million euros to this item. This, added to the slowdown in economic growth forecast by the IMF, which estimates GDP growth of just 1.2% for next year, means a 2023 deficit of 4.4%, half a point above estimate. of the government (3.9%) and on which it bases its general budgets.
Worst of all, the Fund believes that the deficit will become entrenched in the coming years and not gradually diminish as the government believes. For example, the Washington-based agency calculates that the gap in the bills will be 4.2% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025. In addition, it will increase slightly more for 2026 and 2027 until the study period closes in 4.3%, well over above the executive’s forecast, which expects the deficit to fall to 2.9% by 2025. There are about 32,000 million discrepancies between government and IMF accounts for the next three years.
Spain would thus be well above the eurozone deficit level, which will already be 3.3% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2027, almost two points lower than the Spanish interest rate.
Better news comes from the public debt side that, although at very high levels, the forecasts between this body and the government do coincide, even in the expectation of a larger debt reduction. For example, according to the Fund, our country will end the year with a debt of 113.6% in relation to GDP, almost two points lower than the government’s forecast.
Next year, the debt will be reduced to 112.1%, which will continue the trend to 110.2% in 2024, 109% in 2025, 109% in 2026 and 109.6% in 2027. A very similar path as the Executive in the presentation of his accounts.
Source: La Verdad
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
