Individuals show more confidence in the market and are committed to investing more in deposits, funds, stocks and treasury bills
Last week’s profit-taking is again giving way to buying, showing that the bottom of the market, despite occasional cuts, remains positive. The Ibex-35 recovers 0.5% and 9,100 points the day before the reference that will mark the future of stock markets in the coming weeks: the US inflation data to be released on Tuesday.
“US inflation has been falling uninterruptedly since July and to raise the perspective of the analysis it is critical that it continues to do so to around +5%, as that price level would already be compatible with interest rates of 5.00/5, 25%, which is the most likely terminal reach,” Bankinter analysts indicate.
This, added to the full employment of the US economy with an unemployment rate of 3.4%, experts say will result in GDP likely to regain momentum sooner than expected.
Against this background, Mapfre (+3.06%), Logista (+2.07%), Cellnex (+1.56%) and the banks led the table this Monday. On the loss side, Grifols stands out (-2.20%), followed by Rovi (-1.24%), ArcelorMittal (-0.72%), Telefónica (-0.70%) or Repsol (-0.65%) ).
If projections of more subdued inflation materialize, investor confidence would be strengthened, as this would justify the markets’ rapid recovery at the start of the year. The experts are clear that the increases should be more progressive from now on, because if the pace is maintained, the stock markets would be without travel for the rest of the year. But the feeling is much better than a few months ago.
This is also reflected in the latest Confidence Index that JP Morgan AM has produced every quarter since 2007, which shows how Spanish savers and investors are beginning to regain their optimism about the evolution of the markets. While this survey still registers mostly negative sentiment (-0.99 points), consumer confidence shows a marked improvement from the previous measurement (July to September 2022), when investors’ poor expectations about the future at the end of the year, the indicator fell to -2.7 points, reaching the lowest level since the strictest months of quarantine in 2020.
“The perception that the war in Ukraine is stabilizing, the belief that stock markets have bottomed out, as well as the expectation that inflation will moderate are some of the reasons put forward by investors who rely on the good development of the markets.” , they indicate from the company.
This JP Morgan AM survey also provides a detailed breakdown of individual savers’ and investors’ purchasing intentions for financial products. And the data reflects some curiosities. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2022, 43% of Spanish investors and savers declared to have a contracted pension plan, which represents an increase of five points compared to the previous quarter, despite the new restrictions on the deduction for contributions to these products.
Mutual funds saw a similar increase, becoming part of the portfolios of more than 30% of those surveyed – compared to 26% in the previous quarter – meaning early 2021 data, the best of the past decade, needs to be reinstated.
The international manager’s research also points to the recovery in debt investments (treasury bills, corporate bonds, etc.), which jumped by two points and crossed the 10% mark for the first time in the historical series in terms of presence in the portfolios.
In the heat of the confidence shown, JP Morgan AM confirms in his research how the intention to contract six months ahead is also increasing in all financial products (deposits, funds, stocks, treasury bills…) In the same vein, the number of people is decreasing who say they will not invest in anything for the next six months, from almost 30% to 22%, although this figure remained below 18% in 2021.
Source: La Verdad
I’m Ben Stock, a journalist and author at Today Times Live. I specialize in economic news and have been working in the news industry for over five years. My experience spans from local journalism to international business reporting. In my career I’ve had the opportunity to interview some of the world’s leading economists and financial experts, giving me an insight into global trends that is unique among journalists.
