Is the intoxication over? – Golden Expert still sees “enough room for improvement”

“There is already a cat whining,” but golden expert Ronald Stöferleer still sees “enough room for improvement”. With his long -term objective by 2030 of $ 4,800 (approximately 4280 euros) per ounce, he registers the “absolute lower limit” of the current price correction $ 2,800.

In their 19th “in Gold We Trust” report from the Asset Manager Incrementum on Thursday, the most important authors Stöferle and Mark Valek assume that the Golden Prize could even rise to $ 8,900 in an inflatory scenario.

Gold is no longer a “bargain”
Since the publication of the report in 2024, gold has increased by more than 35 percent and has therefore exceeded many stock markets. “Gold is no longer on a bargain,” Stöferle gave in to the presentation of the Gold Report of 440 pages, but “we are not yet at the end of the flagpole”.

The leading motif of the current edition is “The Big Long” based on the book title “The Big Short”, which describes the collapse of the American mortgage market. According to this, gold could again play a monetary role in the future and become more important in a world of geopolitical and economically more fragmented world.

The authors also refer to geopolitical changes from the customs policy of Donald Trump to a possible repositioning of the US dollar. In a scenario of political uncertainty, considerations such as a re -evaluation of American gilded reserves or gold -covered bonds can come forward again.

“Trump-Shock” offers uncertainty
The new economic policy separation of the US – Valek speaks about the “Trump -Schock” – is more than a trade war. The new US government “focuses the first time that there are sustainable imbalances at the tax level, at trade level, but ultimately also at monetary level”. For the first time, an American government openly granted the structural overboard of the country.

Although the interest rates for government debt were stable with regard to the development of GDP in the years 2010, the debts had increased. “Of course this was only possible because of the years of zero interest rates.” Now the United States has entered the “zero interest rate” – the interest costs are now greater than the defense budget.

The hoped for savings potential, which was hoped by the Doge initiative led by Elon Musk, will be missed-the estimates for this year $ 155 billion would be. “This is also a large amount, but compared to the entire government spending, it is relatively little important.” Since the United States must be able to eliminate the structural trade deficit, it is not recognizable, said Valek.

In our opinion, it is unlikely that this can be done with the current trade and customs policy. The gold experts assume that the Trump government will try to considerably devalue the dollar.

Central banks as price drivers
An important engine of the gold price remains the gold demand of the central banks. According to Stöferle, they worn “not price-sensitive” and would consider gold as a strategic, politically neutral reserve active. The central banks had bought more than 1000 tons of gold three years in a row. Last year the central banks spent more than $ 100 billion for gold. “By the way, Poland was the greatest golden copper.”

The physical demand remains a stable pillar of the gold market, especially in Asia and the BRICS countries. “The Western financial investor has transferred this rally.” Since the beginning of 2025, the tributaries in physically stored Golden ETFs have increased considerably after they have fallen in previous years.