Pollster Peter Hajek and political adviser Thomas Hofer expect Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen to receive at least 50 percent (plus one vote) of the vote in the first ballot. A second round of voting is unlikely, “unless Van der Bellen makes a serious mistake.”
Hajek referred in this regard to a study conducted under his scientific leadership by the Unique Research Institute. In mid-August, 66 percent of those polled spoke out in favor of the incumbent Federal President. Van der Bellen has several advantages, such as the argument “Everyone who wants me should vote for me.” For the remaining six candidates, it can be assumed that there is only “a small chance” of winning the person in question in the repechage election. Therefore, it will “become more difficult to maintain the mobilization”.
Fishing in the Hofer basin
Moreover, according to Hajek, the more right-wing candidates Walter Rosenkranz (FPÖ), blogger Gerald Grosz, lawyer Tassilo Wallentin and MFG boss Michael Brunner would take each other’s votes. They would all fish in the former basin of ex-presidential candidate Norbert Hofer (FPÖ), but would not appeal to Van der Bellen’s center-left voters anyway. Hajek thinks ÖVP voters could also lean more towards the incumbent federal president. The statements by various candidates that the government (Rosenkranz, Wallentin) or immediately (Grosz) would be fired after an election victory contributed to this.
Rosary in second place?
The FPÖ candidate Rosenkranz could finish in second place, but Wallentin in particular poses a threat, “because he appeals to exactly the same voter segment.” According to surveys in August, every fifth FPÖ voter wants to switch to Grosz. According to Hajek, the more left-wing candidates, Beer Party founder Dominik Wlazny (aka “Marco Pogo”) and shoe manufacturer Heinrich Staudinger, tend not to finish in the top positions. They have the potential to reach people who otherwise would not have voted.
Political adviser Thomas Hofer reacted somewhat more cautiously to the current situation on Sunday. He also sees Van der Bellen as a “big favourite”, who could probably win in the first round of voting. However, he is considered a “systems candidate” and the “daily political accusation” is difficult. The cause of Wien Energie might make it more difficult to mobilize SPÖ voters. Van der Bellen would probably prefer not to campaign at all.
Source: Krone
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