NI election analysis: DUP and Sinn Féin battle to be the biggest battle party to lose the fewest seats

The battle between the DUP and Sinn Fein to become the largest party in Stormont since the May elections is shaped by the loss of more seats.

With only one seat separated from the two big seats in the last assembly election of 2017, the DUP returned 28 seats to MLA Sinn Fein.

But back-to-back polls show that their share of the vote for both parties is down from five years ago.

Sinn Féin scored highly in the 2017 early elections when nationalists expressed anger over issues including the DUP RHI scandal.

The Republican Party received 27.9% of the vote in the first election. For comparison, in a February survey by the University of Liverpool, Sinn Fein was down 23.2%, down more than four points.

However, Sinn Féin could still outperform the DUP and become the largest party, as his vote could drop by a large margin.

DUP reached 28.1% of first preferences in 2017. In the February survey it fell to 19.4%.

The party is experiencing a triple crack in the unionists’ vote amid turmoil in their leadership and resentment of unification over the Brexit protocol and Northern Ireland.

Both sides are campaigning with different strategies to get the leaders out.

For the DUP, he was trying to offer a tougher anti-protocol approach while trying to get Jim Alistair’s vote back to TUV.

As part of this, the DUP ousted Stormont’s executive branch and warned that it would not return to power-sharing after the election until its demands for protocol were met.

They argue that unionist voters should unite behind them to prevent Sinn Fein from becoming the largest party and thus occupying the position of Prime Minister.

A frequent line in DUP is that Shin Fain “requires a focus on sensing the limits of their plan” rather than on health, education and the economy.

This is a difficult story for the DUP after the party left the unity government.

The number of DUP candidates is lower than in 2017, which indicates that the party is looking to boost its votes. Strangford, Foil and Upper Pan are among the areas that may be at risk of job losses.

Meanwhile, Sinn Féin argues that the DUP’s exit from the executive has prevented the remaining ministers from adequately addressing issues such as the pressure on the cost of living.

Other than that, his approach to this election is to maintain a lower profile until the united divide deepens and their rhetoric intensifies.

The DUP and Ulster Trade Unionists refuse to say whether they will take over as First Deputy Minister, and if Sinn Fein becomes the largest, it could anger nationalist voters.

“The DUP only wants democracy when it meets its conditions,” has become a recurring theme in Sinn Féin’s letters.

The party also sought to shut down the DUP’s offensive lines and became friendlier on transfers as voters headed to the polls.

When the DUP accused Shane Fein of disrespecting unionists by preventing the Queen’s anniversary celebrations, Shane Fein agreed to plant a tree in Stormont to celebrate the anniversary.

Party chairwoman Mary Lou MacDonald congratulated the Queen for her “lifelong service”.

Sinn Fein’s public statements also repeatedly coincide with Stormont’s “other progressive parties” seeking a transition from the SDLP, the Alliance, and the Greens.

Since the party holds several seats in some constituencies, it makes more sense to transfer votes to smaller parties.

Choosing a second, third or fourth preference can be crucial to occupying risk areas, such as West Belfast, North Belfast, Firmanh and South Tyrone.

This election, as a struggle for the Prime Minister, benefits both the DUP and Sinn Fein.

However, this narrative in no way predicts how prime minister and deputy prime minister will have common and equal roles.

The smaller parties called them “joint prime ministers,” joking that they needed mutual consent to even order basic foodstuffs.

Under the system of compulsory distribution of power between unionists and nationalists, one cannot direct executive power without the other. They have to run together.

Instead, this particular battle is about symbolism in elections.

It would be a severe psychological blow to the union if he lost his position as minister for the first time.

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein undoubtedly argues that the larger party and assuming the position of Prime Minister are showing growing support for a united Ireland.

Only 1,168 votes were cast for DUP and Sinn Féin in the last assembly elections.

As Voting Day approaches, both parties know that every vote – and every offer – is important in achieving their ambitions.