Voter flow analytics have absolutely nothing to do with surveys. Based on the results of all constituencies, municipalities and districts of a current and previous election, the scientists of the SORA Institute calculate statistically how many voters their candidate or their party has retained. Or go for a walk somewhere else.
1. Norbert Hofer’s supporters become Alexander Van der Bellen’s voters. Given the contradiction between the FPÖ and the Greens, that seems like an endless political journey. But in 2022, nearly 500,000 Austrians were walking. So many people who supported Hofer in the presidential elections six years ago have crossed over old and new election winner Van der Bellen this time.
2. Those are not so much fewer votes than the blue Walter Rosenkranz received from the blue Hofer’s camp among friends of the freedom party. How is that possible? It must be remembered that Hofer once had many voters who would otherwise not be for the FPÖ. But originally in the first ballot, for example Andreas Khol of the ÖVP or Rudolf Hundstorfer of the SPÖ. Van der Bellen reached out and picked up many of those voters who were homeless yesterday.
3. More recent are the migrations of the respective party supporters from the last National Council elections in 2019. Federal President Van der Bellen received three-quarters of the green votes, but had to cede a significant part to Dominik Wlazny. He clearly won because two-thirds of the ÖVP voters — a large number three years ago — were in his favor.
4. Right-wing candidates Rosenkranz, Tassilo Wallentin, Gerald Grosz and Michael Brunner all took votes apart without scoring particularly well at the center-right. There was also a special problem for Rosenkranz: about one in ten voters for the FPÖ in 2019 stayed home in the presidential election and became a non-voter.
5. After the election is before the election. What can be learned from voter increases in a personal election for the next party elections? Van der Bellen’s victory shows that the ÖVP can leak in all directions. It’s not just losing votes to the FPÖ. This in turn had mobilization problems and will get even more problems once multiple right-wing parties are found. Wlazny, on the other hand, proved that the SPÖ – which also has no strategy against the FPÖ – and the Greens are just as easily attacked from the left.
Source: Krone
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