October Sociometer Results, Voting Intent for the 2023 Regional and Municipal Elections

Euskaraz irakurri: Aburtok gehiengo osoa lortuko luke, eta PSE-EEk gora egingo luke Donostian eta Gasteizen

The Sociometer, prepared by the Sociological Prospecting Office of the Basque Government, foresees that: Juan Mari Aburto (PNV) achieves an absolute majority in the 2023 municipal elections and predicts a to get up with support of PSE-EE in San Sebastian and Vitoria-Gasteiz. Other than these changes in the capitals, the results do not differ much from those of the latest survey, conducted last June.

The voting intention survey, conducted through a telephone interview from 3 to 7 October to more than 3,300 inhabitants of the three territories, was carried out when the Basque parties had started the election of their candidatures. For example, it was already known that the jeltzale Rementeria would not opt ​​for re-election for Bizkaia, that Juan Mari Aburto would choose Bilbao or that Odón Elorza would become mayor (although not that it was Marisol Garmendia who ultimately imposed).

According to the October Sociometer, the results of the municipal elections will deviate from the predictions of four months ago.

In Bilbaothe jeltzale Juan Mari boring it would take an absolute majority (15 councillors), adding one to the number it currently has, although the estimate of the number of votes is slightly lower (it would go from the 44.7% expected in June to 44 .3%). Contrary to the previous survey (it predicted no changes and retained the 14 mayors), this survey coincides with the results already pointed out by EITB Focus in its voting intention survey in May. EH Bildu —now with 4 — and PSE-EE would keep the number of councilors the same (5) and both would be over 15% (16.4 and 15.2%, respectively, up half a point from the nationalist coalition, always compared to the previous survey). No change in expected support for Elkarrekin Podemos (currently it has three councillors) and PP, both with two representatives and a percentage of the vote of about 8.5 and 8.7 respectively.

With regard to the estimation of mayors and the percentage of votes in favour Saint Sebastian, the PNV would win the elections again, albeit with less support (three points less than expected in June: it would fall from 37.1% to 33.8) and as a result, Eneko Goia would get 10 councilors -same as now-. EH Bildu and PSE-EE would equalize the number of representatives (6), as the investigation involved a significant increase in the percentage of estimated votes of the socialists (it increases by 4.3 points to 21.5%) and hits the expected support for the nationalist coalition (21.7%). The PP would also rise to 3 mayors (9.4% of the vote) and overtake Elkarrekin Podemos, who would remain with 2 and 7.9% of support.

In Vitoria-GasteizPNV (24.2%) and PSE-EE (21.5%) would receive the same number of councilors (7), with which the socialists would overtake EH Bildu, who would remain at the current 6 and with 22.3% of support (in June the estimate was 22%). The PP would keep its 5 representatives (18.2%) and Elkarrekin Podemos would keep 2 – she currently has 3 – and 7.1% of the estimated votes. The survey reduces the predicted rise for Vox in June, which is now 3.4% (four months ago it was 4.6%), and the far right would fail to reach representation now either.

Concerning the official elections, not too many surprises are expected, always according to the Sociometer. In Alava, the jeltzales would reconfirm their 2019 win, with an estimated vote of 30.5%, although they would fall almost a point from the results expected in June. EH Bildu would be the second force, with 23.2% of the vote. The survey predicts a rise in socialists, who would receive 18.8% of the support. Populares (14%) and Elkarrekin Podemos (6.7%) would remain in percentage of the vote. Vox would decline in support (3.0%) and would not gain representation in Alava’s General Meetings.

In Biscay, the poll gives a clear victory to the PNV, which would remain, with 44.4% of the estimated vote. At some distance, and with 22.4% of the vote, EH Bildu would repeat the second position, eight points ahead of the PSE-EE (14.4%). Elkarrekin Podemos would hold onto fourth place, with even more support (8.2%) and closely followed by the PP (7.1%).

The Sociometer predicts a battle between the PNV and EH Bildu Gipuzkoa, for whom the survey would predict 36.3% and 33.0%, respectively. PSE-EE would gain support and rise to 16.6% of the vote (seven tenths more than in June). Elkarrekin Podemos would repeat the support (7%), as would PP (4.4%).