Political earthquake in Lower Austria – voter flows: ÖVP lost 72,000 votes to FPÖ

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The ÖVP lost the most to the FPÖ with 72,000 votes in the state elections in Lower Austria. With 36,000 votes, the ÖVP lost the second largest number of votes to those “second residents” who were no longer entitled to vote due to the change of voting rights in this election. The FPÖ won against the ÖVP, SPÖ and the former non-voters. The latter, however, were most strongly convinced by the ÖVP. This is evident from the SORA voice stream analysis commissioned by the ORF.

This analysis examines voter migration based on the 2018 state elections. Accordingly, as of 2018, the ÖVP again managed to convince 65 percent of its voters.

15,000 votes from ÖVP to NEOS
In addition to the 72,000 to the FPÖ, she lost 15,000 votes to the NEOS, 13,000 to the Greens, 9,000 to the SPÖ and 10,000 to non-voters.

FPÖ managed to remobilize 68% of their voters
The FPÖ managed to mobilize 68 percent of its voters from the last election and, in addition to many votes from the ÖVP, also received 29,000 from the SPÖ. 23,000 FPÖ voters from 2023 did not go to the polls in 2018. It suffered minor losses to the SPÖ (14,000), ÖVP (11,000) and non-voters (13,000).

The mobilizing power of the Social Democrats was also high at 69 percent. In addition to the FPÖ, they also lost votes to the Greens and NEOS, albeit significantly less than to the FPÖ at 6,000 each. 14,000 SPÖ voters from 2018 did not go to the polls this time.

Greens and NEOS have a problem with fixed voters
The Lower Austrian Greens and NEOS seem to have significantly fewer permanent voters. The former mobilized 55 percent of voters as of 2018, the latter only 46 percent. Both won votes, especially from the ÖVP, the Greens 13,000, the NEOS 15,000.

The amendment to the electoral law, according to which second homes were no longer entitled to vote this year for the first time, has mainly harmed the ÖVP. 36,000 of the 97,000 who were no longer entitled to vote this year voted for the ÖVP in 2018, of whom 47,000 were non-voters in 2018. The 2018 non-voters were most strongly mobilized this year by the ÖVP (36,000) and the PVV (23,000).

Source: Krone

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