February Sociometer results on voting intention for the 2023 municipal and regional elections

Euskaraz irakurri: EAJk irabaziko luke lurralde guztietan, EH Bilduk bigarren eutsiko lioke eta E. Pomosek behera egingo luke

The jeltzals would prevail in everything historic areas, with EH Bildu consolidated as the second force, declines expected for Elkarrekin Podemos and PSE-EE (minimum) and a PP that would manage to maintain itself and even rise. This is the picture it throws Basque government sociometer about the intention to vote in the next regional elections.

About the results in the basque capitalsthe study does not point to major changes compared to the 2019 results, with the exception of Vitoria-Gasteiz, where an emergence of EH Bildu is predicted, who would join the PNV on 7 councilors (currently the jeltzales have 7 representatives and the sovereignist coalition 6). It should be noted that, according to the survey, Elkarrekin Podemos would lose a mayor in every town hall, who would go to EH Bildu.

The survey of the Sociological Survey Office was conducted from January 31 to February 6 through a telephone interview with 3,000 inhabitants of the Basque Autonomous Community.

Specifically, with regard to the estimated results in the General Meetings, the PNV would win in Álava, Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa, with estimated vote percentages slightly higher than the previous contest (no estimate of seats is given). EH Bildu would maintain second place in the three territories and improve results, especially in Gipuzkoa, where it would narrow the gap to the jeltzales by half a point (32.7% expected for EH Bildu, compared to 36.2% for the PNV).

They would be followed by the PSE-EE, with decreases of about one point in the three territories. Elkarrekin Podemos would lose out compared to the 2019 regional elections – it would lose 3 points in Álava and Bizkaia and almost two in Gipuzkoa – and would be almost equal in percentage of the vote with the PP in Bizkaia (7.3% compared to 7.2%). The popular ones, in fact, would remain in the territory of Álava and Gipuzkoa, rising by half a point in Bizkaia.

As for the municipal elections in Bilbao, San Sebastián and Vitoria-Gasteiz, the most relevant change would take place in the latter capital, where the Sociómetro predicts a technical bond for councilors between the PNV and EH Bildu, although Beatriz Artolazabal’s candidacy would lead Rocio Vitero in percentage of the vote (24.3% compared to 21.6%). The Socialists led by Maider Etxebarria would drop the vote estimates (20.9%), although they would keep their 6 councillors. The PP would manage to secure its five representatives while Elkarrekin Podemos would lose one (it would drop from 3 to 2).

As for the expected results for Bilbao, Juan Mari Aburto would win an absolute majority (15 councilors), with one more councilor the PP would lose (it would drop from 3 to 2). The PSE-EE would keep its 5 councilors and establish ties with EH Bildu, who would set up one at the expense of Elkarrekin Podemos.

Finally, San Sebastián’s PNV would repeat the result (10 councilors) and EH Bildu would appoint a representative (goes from 6 to 7), which the purple coalition would lose (3 to 2). PSE-EE and PP would continue with 5 and 3 representatives respectively.