A few days before the state elections in Carinthia, the tailwind for SPÖ governor Peter Kaiser looks different: “People don’t want arguments,” says Christoph Haselmayer, political expert and pollster at the Institute for Demoscopy and Data Analysis (IFDD). The compulsory vaccination still plays a role in the countryside in Carinthia as well. “Actually, it doesn’t matter whether Peter Kaiser gets 40 or 46 percent in the election. The only deciding factor is whether there is a potential mandate majority against Peter Kaiser,” the pollster said.
The state government of Carinthia currently has 36 mandates to grant, Peter Kaiser currently has 18. If Kaiser adheres to the 18 mandates, nothing will happen. But if he drops to 17 or even 16 mandates, a “House of Karawanken” will play in Carinthia on Sunday evening, predicts Haselmayer. “A potential three-way constellation of FPÖ, Team Kärnten and ÖVP could take on Peter Kaiser. However, that will only work if the Greens or NEOS, or both, do not get into Carinthia’s state parliament. They are out of mandates.
Vaccination is still a problem
The SPÖ will probably not be able to achieve a sensational result like that of 2018 in Carinthia. Nevertheless, Haselmayer assumes that Peter Kaiser will have a four for the result. “However, the trend is clearly less than 46 percent.” Not only the constant quarrels within the party would be decisive here, but also the Corona policy, Haselmayer explains. “The Party for Freedom has succeeded in drawing people’s attention to the obligation to vaccinate. Under the motto: ‘We were all locked up for six months.’” The trend towards the election results of the PVV is therefore clearly increasing. Nevertheless: the PVV will have to do without an election success like in Lower Austria, since Team Carinthia and Vision Austria also fish in the same electoral pool.
For the state elections in Carinthia, the SPÖ tried – despite repeated rumors – to unite. Will this unity crumble after the election? “It all depends on the outcome of the election,” says Haselmayer. “I find it unique how much you harm yourself. Last year the SPÖ was in first place, then the crossfire came again and the polls rattled. These ongoing presidential debates are clearly detrimental to the party.”
You can see the entire interview with Christoph Haselmayer in the video above.
Source: Krone
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
