Alexander Van der Bellen will announce his re-candidate for the presidency on Sunday. If he really does, he’s a big favorite. Previously, all incumbents who ran again were elected a second time. A “gmahte Wiesn” and thus a rather boring election campaign? Probably.
1. With Adolf Schärf, Franz Jonas, Rudolf Kirchschläger, Thomas Klestil and Heinz Fischer, five presidents in the history of the Second Republic of Austria have applied for the second time. Without exception, they were re-elected on the first ballot. It was relatively close for Jonas in 1971 with about 53 percent of the vote. Most recently, in 2010, as with Kirchschläger in 1980, Fischer had about 80 percent.
2. The Social Democrat Jonas had an equal opponent in Kurt Waldheim, nominated by the ÖVP, while Van der Bellen is more or less wanted and supported by all other parties except the FPÖ. That makes a clear win for the incumbent likely.
3. What is or would have been if the incumbent president decides not to run again? Malicious political observers would be happy to attend the party meetings of the ÖVP, SPÖ, GRÜNEN and Neos Mäuschen. To observe the crisis management there: “Help, we must find both willing and promising candidates in record time and also raise a budget for the election campaign despite bankruptcies in the party coffers!”
4. The ranks of the ÖVP and SPÖ would have to fight with just 11 percent of the vote the trauma that long-serving party officials Andreas Khol and Rudolf Hundstorfer experienced an unparalleled electoral debacle last time. Who should also be a logical candidate on the part of the Chancellor?
5. Othmar Karas has his merits in the EU, but is hardly more popular within the party than the ex-Groene Van der Bellen. He also speaks far too little against those up to two million voters who stay at home for EU elections and go to presidential elections.
6. In addition to the relief of the traditional parties that they can skip the election campaign, the FPÖ is delighted. Herbert Kickl & Co. meet their ideal opponent in Van der Bellen. Knowing that their chances of winning are minimal, their strategic goal is actually to use the media stage to post partisan political messages. Because the other parties are having a break in their election campaign coverage.
7. A liberal defeat of Susanne Fürst – or anyone else – can be sold as a respectable success, delighting die-hard supporters with the message that everything is just a turquoise-red-green-pink conspiracy against the blue people. For that, it needs the arch-enemy of six years ago and now Federal President Van der Bellen as a rut.
8. Supposedly hopeless third-party candidates can almost cheer. If four of the five political groups do not nominate a candidate, there is a unique opportunity for public attention. When Heinz Fischer had no significant competition in 2010 – Barbara Rosenkranz received a weak 15 percent of the vote for the FPÖ – Rudolf Gehring’s hour arrived. Its Christians are a fundamentalist micro-party without meaning. However, due to a lack of alternatives, more than 171,000 people voted for it.
9. Meanwhile, Marco Pogo of the satirical Beer Party has revealed his presidential ambitions. Why would a result in the Gehring area with more than five percent of the vote not be possible for him? Maybe even more, depending on how many willing or involuntary satirists are in line. They could all skim their fifteen minutes of fame, to quote artist Andy Warhol, regardless of the exact election result.
10. If the tension is about to end over who will sit in front, turnout could drop from the last 74 percent. Although the ÖVP will almost never again – as happened in 2010 – indirectly call for not to vote or to cast invalid votes. You didn’t want to be for Fischer then, but you didn’t want to stand a chance with your own candidate either. As a result, nearly half of eligible voters failed to show up and a record over seven percent of voters cast invalid votes.
However, Alexander Van der Bellen will not want an intensive election campaign either. As president of the past six years, unlike his competitors, he does not need to introduce himself to the media. It therefore remains to be seen whether there will be an elephant round on television at all.
Van der Bellen’s two-man confrontations with all opponents can almost be ruled out due to the unwillingness of the incumbent party. But it is the highest office in the state of Austria, so we should all be interested in it politically.
Source: Krone

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