The PNV will be the party with the most votes. The sovereigntist coalition and the Yeltzale formation are competing for the last seat for Álava with only a 48-vote difference. Also striking is the high number of indecisive people, more than 20%.
EITB Focus provides a technical connection in seats between the PNV and EH Bildu in the elections for the Basque parliament on April 21, although the Jeltzale formation will be the most voted party with just over 3 points ahead.
The macro survey, published a month before the elections, paints a high-voltage scenario: to the above-mentioned technical link between the two main political forces, we must turnout of 20.1% undecidedwhich will completely determine the end result.
Undecided people are those whose votes the political parties put the most effort into winning during the election campaign, and who show an unpredictable sociological profile: they are not abstainers, that is, they have declared their intention to vote, but few tend to determine the meaning of votes. their votes days (or hours) before the election.
According to EITB Focus, the force with the most votes will be PNVwith 36% of the vote, 3 points less than in 2020, and 27-28 seats (they will lose 3 or 4).
For his part, EH Bildu It will obtain 32.7% of the votes, which represents a growth of almost 5 points, and 28-27 seats, that is, 6 or 7 more.
In this context, the battle for the last seat in Álava will be crucial, currently held by the sovereigntist coalition, but with the PNV only 48 votes in favor.
On the other hand, the PSE-EE It will repeat itself as the third force, but with an increase in both the number of votes (from 13.7% four years ago to 14.2%) and the number of parliamentarians (it will reach 11, one more).
He PP It will also grow and gain another representative, to 7, after an increase in votes by one and a half points, to 8.3%.
As for the space of the confederal left, the division into two parties will result in a loss of 4 seats: in the 2020 regional elections, the Elkarrekin Podemos coalition obtained 6 parliamentarians, while on April 21, 2 seats are expected for the lists under led by Miren Gorrotxategi (who will be present under the name Elkarrekin Podemos – Green Alliance), and none for Addwhose candidate is Alba García.
However, EITB Focus has discovered that there is a high degree of this brand confusion among the electorate of this political space, so the study’s seat prediction is strongly determined by this circumstance.
Finally, Vox will be left out of the Basque parliament, having lost its only representative from Álava with a support of 1.4%, six tenths less than in the previous elections.
The stake the prediction is low, 61.2%.
More EITB Focus, tomorrow and the day after
The second wave of EITB Focus in 2024, ahead of the 21A elections, will continue tomorrow, Friday, with the publication of key citizen concerns and Lehendakari preferences and agreements.
In addition, the EITB group media will analyze the microdata from the study on Saturday.
Data sheet
1,800 people living in the BAC were interviewed to prepare the EITB Focus survey (600 in each historical area).
The fieldwork was conducted from March 8 to 14 through telephone interviews.
All data, microdata and other statistical aspects can be consulted in the Open Data section of the EITB Group Transparency Portal.
Source: EITB
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
