EITB election survey for the 21A Basque elections

The election survey EITB predicts one technical band between PNV and EH Bildu with 26-28 seats, although the Jeltzale party will have the most votes with a lead of 2.8 points. Therefore, the election night count is expected to be high tension.

In particular the PNV will receive 35.7% of the votes, 3.4 points less than in 2020, and lose between 3 and 5 seats, while EH Bildu It will grow from 27.9% of votes obtained four years ago to 32.9%, and will add 5 to 7 parliamentarians.

For its part, the PSE-EE He will improve his results, with 0.6 points more votes, and could even win two representatives, up to 12 (the survey gives him a range of 10-12).

It will grow too PPone and a half points, and will secure another seat, 7, at the expense of Voxthat will disappear from the Basque parliament.

Only for the confederal left Elkarrekin We can download it will have a guaranteed presence in the House with 1-2 parliamentarians, while the attendance of Add is uncertain: you could be locked out or even end up with two representatives.

Alava

EH Bildu will be the first power in the area for the first time in the regional elections with 8-9 seats (2 or 3 more than in 2020), followed by the PNV, which will lose 7-8 by 1-2.

Although the sovereigntist coalition will have the most votes with a difference of 3.6 points, the size of the draw also leaves open the possibility of an 8-seat tie between the two forces.

At a greater distance, the PP will overtake the PSE-EE as the third power with 15.5% of the vote and four parliamentarians, one more than four years ago.

The Socialist Party will reappoint its current representatives, 4, with a slight drop of 0.2 points in votes.

On the other hand, the representation of the confederal left in this historical area is questionable, as both Elkarrekin Podemos and Sumar present a 0-1 score.

Finally, Vox will lose its only representative in the Basque Chamber, that of Álava in 2020.

Bizkaia

The PNV will maintain its leadership in the area and continue to hold more than 40% of the vote, although one representative will lose just over 2 points, from 12 to 11.

EH Bildu will grow 5 points and add 1-2 extra seats, to 7-8.

The PSE-EE will increase its support by half a point and could even gain another parliamentarian, up to four points.

The PP will also grow in votes, more than one point, but not in seats, and will maintain its current 2.

This area is exactly where Elkarrekin Podemos seems to have a guaranteed seat, while Sumar’s candidate for lehendakari, Alba García, will remain the strength of the Chamber.

Gipuzkoa

EH Bildu will win in votes and seats in this area for the first time, with more than 40% of the votes and a total of 11 seats, 2 more than in the previous regional elections.

The PNV will be the second power with between 8 and 9 parliamentarians, and will therefore lose 1 or 2.

The PSE-EE could gain one more seat than it currently has, with a predicted range of 3-4.

The PP will improve its voting results, but will retain its current representative in the area.

Finally, on the confederal left, only Sumar could win a seat for this area, but no guarantee has been given to him either (0-1).

Data sheet

To compile this election survey, 3,608 surveys were conducted between Monday, April 15 and this morning (1,208 in Álava, 1,260 in Bizkaia and 1,139 in Gipuzkoa).