the last seat of each area at stake, but remote options for change

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On the historic territory of Álava, the PNV could take the last seat from EH Bildu; in Bizkaia, Sumar is about to take it from the PSE-EE; and in Gipuzkoa the sovereigntist coalition could get the last seat, at the expense of the Socialists, but that is very difficult or almost impossible.

This Friday it is expected that the investigation into the elections for the Basque parliament. The final check is the counting of votes abroad. A total of 8,200 citizens living outside the Basque Autonomous Community (CAV) cast their votes last Sunday (about 10% of the CERA census). In total, 5,000 more CERA voters voted than four years ago.

In Sunday’s vote, the last seat went to EH Bildu for Álava, while in Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa the last seat went to the PSE-EE. However, that could change. In the historic territory of Alava, the PNV could take the last seat from the sovereigntist coalition; in Bizkaia Sumar is about to take over from the socialists; and in Gipuzkoa EH Bildu could get the last seat, at the expense of the PSE-EE.

Counting foreign votes can change the final outcome, yes, but that has not happened often. In the 2020 elections, EH Bildu lost a parliamentarian to the right-wing coalition PP-Ciudadanos. However, in 2016, EH Bildu won a representative of the PNV thanks to the counting of foreign votes. In turn, the PP took away the last deputy at stake in Bizkaia from the PNV in the 2019 general elections.

This time, however, it does not seem that it will come to that, because the battle for the last seat in the districts is not as fierce. For example, in Gipuzkoa, 3,540 CERA citizens voted, the last seat belongs to the PSE-EE, while EH Bildu is 1,360 votes away.

Consequently, the sovereigntist coalition would first need to get 1,360 votes, and then EH Bildu would additionally need three for every CERA vote the Socialists get.

Therefore, if the PSE-EE also achieved Gipuzkoa’s result in the CERA vote, with 13.5% of the vote, the sovereigntist coalition would need more than seven out of ten foreign votes to win the last parliamentarian, something that seems difficult. or almost impossible to happen.

More CERA votes than ever

CERA is an acronym in Spanish for the census of permanent residents outside the Spanish state. As citizens of the Basque Autonomous Community, almost 83,000 people (82,911) have the right to vote, 4.6% of the total census.

He participated more than ever in Sunday’s elections (10%), because the conditions for this have been relaxed. For example, 3,703 Biscayns living abroad, 3,540 Gipuzkoans and 954 residents of Alava voted.

Source: EITB

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