Once again there is a fuss about the red-white-red opinion survey. Several institutions were seriously wrong with various predictions for the election weekend, the “Krone” reported. Even before the results were known, there were apparently several disagreements among themselves.
When pollsters have different opinions, they apparently don’t like to deviate from their own. This is what happened during the election weekend, as the “Krone” was reported by several independent sources.
“Different values and opinions”
On election day, but also the day before, meetings were said to have taken place between Peter Hajek (Unique Research), Christoph Hofinger (Foresight), Matthias Hinner (ARGE Elections) and Paul Unterhuber (Demox) in which the respective values including the opinions exchanged about them . “Due to the different values and views, one institute subsequently decided to enter the field again,” reports an attendee.
Disagreements among poll watchers reached their peak and trough on Election Day at 4:20 p.m. All institutes had their values, analyzed and compared. As reported, Peter Hajek’s result would be vastly different from the others. The pollster had the FPÖ at 30 percent and the ÖVP in third place. Due to the large differences, he would even have considered not making his data available for the first trend forecast at 5 p.m.
In the end he did it anyway and said the day after the elections for the “Krone”: “We have slightly overestimated the Freedom Party”. You have to take the fluctuation range into account. That was 26 to 34 percent. The FPÖ came in at 25.36. “That was admittedly a little bit different. We were completely right about the other parties.”
Fear of shame
Explosive: The pollsters’ original plan also called for another new trend forecast on election night at 7 p.m. “If we correct our predictions and it turns out not to be true, we will embarrass ourselves even more,” said one pollster. The others eventually agreed – and the preliminary final result at 11pm still contained a few surprises.
Source: Krone
I am Ida Scott, a journalist and content author with a passion for uncovering the truth. I have been writing professionally for Today Times Live since 2020 and specialize in political news. My career began when I was just 17; I had already developed a knack for research and an eye for detail which made me stand out from my peers.
