Hot phase is coming – National Council elections in 100 days: what blooms in autumn

The role of favorite is clear: the FPÖ has been consistently in first place in election surveys for 19 months now; in the two surveys conducted so far in June, she averaged 27 percent, according to the APA election trend. Behind them, the SPÖ and ÖVP are in a tight race for second place, both currently at 22.5 percent. However, the SPÖ has always been slightly ahead in the individual investigations for months.

European elections as a benchmark?
The Freedom Party became the strongest party in a national vote for the first time in the EU elections almost two weeks ago. Contrary to predictions, the People’s Party and the Social Democrats finished just behind in the vote, which was considered a test election. The ÖVP therefore conjures up a duel between party leader Karl Nehammer and FPÖ chairman Herbert Kickl, the SPÖ under chairman Andreas Babler sees a three-party fight in the hot autumn.

Behind these three parties, the NEOS are currently quite stable in fourth place with an average of nine percent. Behind them are the Greens with an average of 8.2 percent.

Despite the dispute, the government has the upper hand
Based on the assumed election results alone, it is unlikely that a new edition of the turquoise-green governing coalition will take place after the National Council elections. In terms of atmosphere, the desire on both sides to continue cooperation also seems limited, especially since the recent dispute over Green Environment Minister Leonore Gewessler going it alone at EU level. It is notable, however, that the federal government remained in office for the entire five-year legislative period. This had only happened once before: from 2008 to 2013 under Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ).

After the elections, the National Council could become significantly more colorful, with the number of parliamentary groups increasing from the previous five to six or even more. That would also make forming a government much more difficult. Possible three-party coalitions are already being put into play – nothing like this has ever happened before at the federal level in Austria.

Beer festival with good opportunities
Opinion pollsters believe that the KPÖ and the Beer Party have the best chances of entry. The latter has clearly exceeded the four percent mandate limit in the surveys since January; in the June surveys, the party of Dominik Wlazny alias Marco Pogo achieved a monthly average of 6.5 percent. Behind this is the KPÖ, which does not achieve it with an average of 2.5 percent in the current surveys, but would achieve a significantly better result than in previous elections.

In order to participate on September 29, parties not yet represented in the National Council must collect statements of support. The starting shot for this is on July 9. To be able to vote throughout Austria, from this deadline until August 2, you must get at least 2,600 eligible voters – correctly distributed among the states – to sign at the town hall or the magistrate.

Small parties insist on ballot papers
Other small parties will also collect expressions of support. A list of the former leader of the Green Party, Madeleine Petrovic, wants to be on the ballot, as well as lesser known small parties, including the “SERVUS party”, “Der Wandel”, “De Geelen”, the “Independent Austrians (DUO )” and the “Democratic Alternative”.

On July 9, the counter for the legal campaign costs ceiling for all parties will start running. In the two and a half months until election day, the parties are allowed to spend a maximum of 8.66 million euros each – due to the inflation adjustment, significantly more than the seven million in the last National Council elections in 2019.

Due to the summer holiday period, the intensive election campaign will not take place until September. The events and statements made so far in the super election year suggest that the election campaign will be brutal.