High tension before the elections: – Trump? Harris? Betting companies see a clear winner

The polls ahead of today’s US election are so close that no serious prediction is possible. In the betting shops, Donald Trump is clearly ahead of Kamala Harris. Anyone who bet about ten dollars on the ex-president would get an average of $15 if he won, while if the vice president won it would be $25.50. Your victory is therefore considered significantly less likely.

In the recent past, however, the surveys have been wrong as often as the betting shops.

• In 2016, the chances were that Hillary Clinton would win against Donald Trump. Things turned out differently.
• In 2020, betting shops assumed that Donald Trump would be re-elected. In the end, Joe Biden won the election – narrowly, but still.
• And in the so-called midterm elections in 2022, in which Congress and a third of the Senate were re-elected, the betting shops predicted a landslide victory for the Republicans. But then the Republicans’ victory in the House of Representatives was much smaller than expected, and the Democrats were able to defend their narrow majority in the Senate.

No trust (anymore)
You can no longer rely on the bets. Until the 1920s, the bets were (almost) always good. Then came the right to vote for women and that turned everything upside down. Until today. The background may be that more men than women gamble and that the odds are more focused on the voting behavior of men.

So we won’t know until after the elections – possibly a few days later – whether Trump has made a spectacular comeback or whether a woman will enter the White House as US president for the first time.

How is that possible?
“But how is that possible?” many Europeans wonder. How can criminal Donald Trump, who was convicted at first instance and who must pay millions in damages for an assault and against whom three other criminal cases are pending, including because he incited the mob to storm the Capitol, have so much pity Harris for getting into trouble?

How is it that the man who to this day perpetuates the lie that he actually won the 2020 election against Joe Biden can rally so many Americans to his side?

The reasons are varied:

• The most important theme in the election campaign is illegal migration. As vice president, Harris had to find diplomatic ways to solve the problem — and she didn’t accomplish much. Even though the number of migrants has decreased recently and is approximately at the level of the Trump presidency.

• The cost of living in the US has soared and inflation has been between six and nine percent for a year and a half. Inflation has now normalized again, but that obviously does not mean that everything will become cheaper again. It just becomes more expensive less quickly.
• Although the US economy has recently grown by two percent, unemployment is low and wages are also rising, this positive development has not yet reached many people in the US. About 40 percent of Americans need to take out a loan for a more expensive car repair or an unplanned purchase of more than $400.

Everything was cheaper under Trump
The consequences of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine are mainly responsible for the high prices. But Trump can blame Biden and Harris for this. After all, everything was cheaper under him as president. And he will ensure that again in the future. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, seems awkward when she promises a cap on food costs.

Many even think it’s cool
Many voters do not care about Trump’s statements, which horrified so many in Europe. Many even think it’s cool that he’s attacking the Washington political establishment, which many hate.

In the US, it is generally very well received when someone has economic success. He is not envied, but admired. Trump is a billionaire and many conclude that he must know a lot about economics and is therefore good for the country.

Trump delivered
From a Christian evangelical perspective, Trump achieved results during his first presidency, appointing conservatives to the Supreme Court and making abortions much more difficult or nearly impossible in many states. In return, many deeply religious Christians forgive him for his behavior, his lies, and his past sexual excursions outside of marriage.

Trump is a man
And last but not least: Trump is a man. Many American men cannot imagine a woman in the Oval Office – this is especially true for the black and Hispanic voter groups that are so important to Democrats. It is not without reason that former President Barack Obama explicitly called on men of color to jump over their shadows and vote for a woman.

But 42 percent of Americans don’t trust a woman to be the commander-in-chief of the world’s most powerful armed forces.