Guest article “Krone” – Trump is not as bad as everyone writes

The U.S. government has three branches: the President, Congress, and the Supreme Court. Each branch has tools and capabilities to control and balance the others. President Trump won’t be able to do it alone here, even if Republicans win both chambers.

Furthermore, the Supreme Court will ensure that both Congress and the President enact laws that are consistent with the Constitution of the United States. Therefore, some of the fears that have portrayed the Trump presidency as authoritarian are unfounded.

National security
Donald Trump campaigned on a rather isolationist program. Overall, it is very likely that Republicans will withdraw from much American presence, but it is difficult to determine when and where.

His manifesto specifically states: “Republicans will strengthen alliances by ensuring our allies meet their commitments and invest in our common defense, and by restoring peace to Europe. We will stand with Israel and strive for peace in the Middle East. We will rebuild our alliance network in the region to ensure a future of peace, stability and prosperity.”

Israel
Trump has committed to continued military support for Israel, meaning the ongoing conflict will gain momentum. Trump’s support for Israel also has broad support in the newly elected Congress, making it very likely that the US will support Israel.

Ukraine
Unlike Israel, there is reason for concern regarding Ukraine. What has he said so far? That he is open to Putin. That Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a “salesman” who takes up too many resources and that he will “end the war” (without giving details) once he is in power.

While there is cautious optimism that Ukraine could continue to receive some funding, the real wildcard is whether Trump will continue President Biden’s restrictive policies regarding Ukrainian use of U.S. weapons on Russian soil.

NATO
During his first term, President Trump, like his predecessor President Obama, put pressure on NATO allies to ‘pay their fair share’. Since Trump’s defeat in 2020, many countries are now investing two percent of their GDP in defense, especially in light of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Some expect Trump will thank states for increasing funding, while still calling on Europe to further step up its efforts to “defend” the continent.

Economy and trade
Trade relations between the US and Europe are vital: during Trump’s first presidency, the biggest dispute between the US and Europe was the tariff war, especially the 25 percent surcharge on steel. Europe responded with tariffs on American products, sometimes exceeding 50 percent (for example, Harley-Davidson and Jack Daniels).

Over the past four years, President Biden has maintained a ceasefire with the EU and a highly cooperative trading relationship. With Trump’s return, this trade war could flare up again.

Trump’s European friends
While few European politicians have spoken negatively about Donald Trump, some have publicly praised him. Ironically, these politicians are also among the most controversial politicians within the EU. Praise comes from Italy, Hungary, Serbia and Slovakia, but also from many right-wing extremist movements. Much of this support comes from the common anti-immigration policy that is becoming increasingly important across Europe. This trend would have continued even with a Harris victory.

The dragon in the room
Perhaps the most important question regarding US-Europe relations has nothing to do with the countries in the two regions, but with China. In military terms, China’s strength is growing faster than that of the United States and Europe combined. Moreover, the Chinese economy balances cheap production with increasing product quality.

Both the US and the EU are struggling to compete in almost every area of ​​the market. As the famous old saying goes, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Europe and the United States may well find opportunities for cooperation in the face of the shared threat from China.

Conclusion
In 2016, many people around the world feared a Donald J. Trump presidency. It turned out that many of these fears were unfounded. Conversely, many who welcomed Trump’s presidency were disappointed that he had failed to deliver on numerous promises (which likely led to his defeat in 2020). A sensible position for Trump’s next term would lie somewhere between these two extremes.