Treasures through melting – How Russia and NATO are fighting for the Arctic

Political observers see Russia at the forefront of the Arctic ‘race’, but the US is pushing for more influence under Donald Trump. The Republicans’ threats to use military force to incorporate Greenland into the United States as the 51st state in an emergency cannot be interpreted in any other way. The largest island in the world has many of the raw materials that are essential for a successful energy transition. Under Greenland’s thick ice layers there are hardly any exploited reserves of uranium, gold and rare earth metals. According to the German Resources Agency (DERA), rare earth deposits alone could cover world demand for 150 years.

Greenland is not only important to the United States because of its natural resources. With an establishment, the United States would also have much greater access to the Arctic Ocean, which until now has been limited to the maritime zones off the coast of Alaska. The US government’s Arctic Strategy describes the area as a “strategically important region.” Political observers agree that Trump’s rhetoric toward Canada should be interpreted in the same direction. Trump will likely try to move the US border further east to contain Russia and China and keep the Europeans in check, political scientist Heinz Gärtner explains.

Russia and China want control over trade routes
Russia is the largest geopolitical player in the Arctic. Vladimir Putin claimed another 1.2 million square kilometers in the region in 2023. About half of the Arctic already belongs to Russia. Moscow has expanded its military presence in the Arctic in recent years in view of the war in Ukraine and the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland. Old Soviet bases and airfields were reactivated. The Kremlin also invested in huge industrial projects, such as floating nuclear power plants or gas processing plants anchored in permafrost. Russia also has the largest icebreaker fleet in the world. These include gigantic nuclear-powered ships: a means of controlling shipping traffic in the Arctic Ocean.

China supports Russia in expanding its supremacy. The US government describes the country as a “major financier of Russian energy exploitation in the Arctic.” Both countries also cooperate militarily in the region, as evidenced by joint exercises off the coast of Alaska. China has invested a lot of money in polar research in recent years. However, Russian-Chinese cooperation is not without conflicts, Gärtner explains. For example with regard to a ‘polar Silk Road’. For both nuclear powers, the focus is on controlling trade routes such as the Northwest Passage.

Expert: “Experience an arms race in the Arctic”
In contrast, the remaining Arctic neighbors include Canada, Norway, Iceland and Greenland (Denmark), all of which – like the US – belong to NATO. The maritime boundaries between the respective zones are in many cases not clear, and some areas are still disputed. Tensions have increased since Russia left the Arctic Council after launching the “special military operation”. “It was not a confrontation until 2022. Russia had bilateral agreements with many countries. “We are now experiencing an arms race in the Arctic,” Gärtner explains. The Arctic has become a “Russian priority.”

Control over the Arctic is highly desirable from an economic perspective. Once the ice in the Arctic Ocean has largely melted, previously difficult-to-access sea routes such as the Northwest Passage will become navigable for large parts of the year. This could greatly shorten existing sea routes through bottlenecks such as the Panama or Suez Canal and make them less important. Control of the passages is a lucrative business for Russia and China as well as for the US.