Analysis and comment – The calculation of Israel: “Iran will make a mistake”

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Israel’s attack on the Iranian nuclear program marks a historic turning point. Tehran is on fire, Tel Aviv under fire. What started when a preventive strike threatens to become an uncontrollable surface burning.

“I didn’t sleep for 36 hours,” says IDF spokeswoman Tammy Shur about the “Krone”. “And we are only at the beginning. Maybe that will answer your question.” A war, maybe a longer, has begun. The last few days mark a turning point. Israeli fighter aircraft not only met military infrastructures, but also the heart of the Iranian self -assert: the nuclear program.

The hundred dead would have been in Iran. The Ministry of Defense was on fire, the smoke rises above the country. Iran answered in various waves, hundreds of rockets were shot towards Israel – including yesterday. The result is bloody: ten dead, more than 200 injuries. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyjahu announced that Iran would “pay a very high price”. President Jitzchak Duke even spoke about defending “not only Israel, but humanity”.

Tammy Shur chose her words carefully. “Our goal is not to destroy Iran,” she said, “but to take the ability to build a nuclear weapon.” A goal that is a military demanding and politically explosive – and required controlled escalation management. But it seems clear: there will be no return to the status quo. Not according to the photos from the center of Tehrans, where the police headquarters were burned. Not after the hundreds of deaths, ranking -high officers and alleged nuclear scientists among them.

In Israel you are convinced: “Iran will make a mistake.” This is what the former Knesset MP and the Midden -Oost -expert Ruth Wasserman says in the “Krone” interview. The regime in Tehran is under pressure and will have to answer – perhaps more difficult than it is good for itself. At the same time, Wasserman is not just landing on Iran. Because of its weakness, the balance of Islamic movements in the region is gliding. Although the Shiite ash seems to be weak, the Sunnis strengthens elsewhere. “The ashes of Iran is weakened. But that also means that Sunni forces such as Turkey or Qatar become stronger. This is not without risk.”

It is demonstrated whether this is the case – or whether a war with uncontrollable dynamics is developing.

You are scared. The bosses of generals and secret service, the last load -bearing pillars of a system, which is shaking by the operation “Rising Lion” by Israel. The attacks on the nuclear centers and other strategic goals not only reveal Israel’s superiority – they meet the Islamic Republic in the nerve center of their self -image.

The Iranian answer? The escalation promised, but then checked: a few rockets, a few drones. Enough to keep the face. This reaction follows proven logic: self -protection against ideology. For years, the regime has only gone so far as retribution that his own political order is not in danger.

An open war? Too dangerous. A quick handle on the atomic bomb? Technically conceivable, political suicide. Because the regime knows that an extensive conflict could destroy those power structures that are still staying together despite inner schism and crumbled legitimacy.

The real enemy from Tehran’s perspective is not Israel, but the loss of control. The goal is not a victory, but survival. The largest weapon of the regime is not the rocket, but the reflex of Persian nationalism, which can even offer a affected system. And that is precisely the paradoxical danger for Israel: any precise blow can weaken the regime – or stabilize.

Source: Krone

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