Alonso and Sainz choices in Jeddah: Is a win or the podium possible?

This weekend is back Formula 1 in arguing the second race of time: the Saudi Arabian GPwithin Jeddah Corniche Street Circuit.

Could Fernando Alonso have an Aston Martin as seen in Bahrain? Can Ferrari close in on Red Bull and overtake Aston Martin with Carlos Sainz? this saturday in qualifying and in the race on sunday? Will Red Bull be great again? There are many questions to be answered.

Here are MD’s predictions and keys to understanding what could happen in the Saudi Arabian GP:

Red Bull favorites

Red Bull were far superior in the opener in Bahrain and it would be a surprise if they weren’t again in the second race of the season. Their engine is powerful and their aerodynamic efficiency on the straight is excellent, so they are expected to dominate again. The question is whether his dominance will be as good on a track with as many fast straights and curves as in the course’s first GP.

2

Ferrari, good choice in Saudi Arabia

Sainz, alone against Red Bull

With the penalty of 10 places that Charles Leclerc will receive on Sunday’s grid, Carlos Sainz will be Ferrari’s only asset. The Spaniard had to take the reins on a track where more was expected of the Italians. They were inferior to Aston Martin in Bahrain because of how much their bad tire management affected a very bad asphalt. But Jeddah is a completely different track where the front end is more important and full of fast straights and corners. Vasseur is clear about this: “Bahrain does not represent everyone and in Jeddah the situation will be better. For the rest, we will make improvements in Jeddah and Australia. That is the only way to recover compared to Red Bull, huge after the weight of your car has been reduced.”

In Jeddah, the Ferrari should be a formidable weapon. In a turn, the vehicle is very fast and Sainz can aim for pole position. In the race, the smallest deterioration of this asphalt should put Carlos there. Ferrari will show the first evolutions of the course and the big question is whether they can compete to be close to Red Bull. Aston Martin? A priori, this track should be more favorable to Ferrari.
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​Ferrari set the best top speed in Bahrain (326 km/h with Sainz). The engine is stronger this year and Vasseur said that the problems with the control unit that Leclerc had would not affect the power of the red engine.
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Is pole position and victory possible? Ferrari could opt for pole with Carlos having a very fast car in one turn. But the question is whether in the race those in red will be able to compete with a strong Red Bull. They will have more options than Bahrain. At a track where the ‘Safety Car’ usually appears and where anything can happen that changes the race from one moment to the next because of how close the walls are, that variable could give Sainz more options to dream about.

3

Aston Martin and Alonso

The big doubt

Aston Martin showed great strength in Bahrain: a good rear end, good handling in slow corners, amazing braking and a car with perfect tire management on a track with a lot of degradation. It is the second best car in Bahrain and alonso He took advantage of this to get on the podium (3rd), but in jeddahAs the Spanish say, “challenge is very different”. The big question is whether Aston Martin will be able to maintain the bar on a similar circuit jeddah. In Bahrain His top speed in a straight line is nothing to get excited about: Alonso marked the 10th best point with 320 km/h and Walk on the 11th. And the Red Bull excels at fast corners.
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Considering this, The theory could indicate that Aston Martin is starting with fewer options than Bahrain, with Red Bull and Ferrari ahead by a lap and perhaps the race, and possibly Mercedes, which will bring improvements and set a higher top speed in Bahrain. However, Stroll’s assistant recently said that the team’s simulations indicate that the car’s performance in Jeddah should be better than in the first race. It overturns any theory.

Despite this, we should not be surprised if we see Alonso’s Aston Martin behind the Red Bulls, Sainz’s Ferrari (Leclerc has 10 penalty spots) and in the battle with the two Mercedes for fourth, fifth or sixth place in the standings from Jeddah.
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So, a priori, victory 33 is hard to happen on this track. Although the high probability of having a ‘Safety Car’ at a crucial moment in the race could open all doors to Fernando Alonso.

4

Mercedes wants to improve

Mercedes will bring some improvements to Saudi Arabia, but still have the same car concept. They showed good top speed in Bahrain and one lap could be difficult for Aston Martin. AND In racing, on a track with little degradation, they can also be a strong rival for green cars. But they are not expected to be close to Red Bull.

5

Alpine, Haas, Alfa Romeo and the middle zone

Alpine is looking to be one of the favorites to take the lead in a very tight midfield. His car is an evolution of last year’s car, which performed very well on high-speed tracks like Jeddah or Australia. Gasly scored the fifth best striker in Sakhir two weeks ago, but it remains to be seen what teams want Alfa Romeo or Haas, powered by a powerful Ferrari engine that could give them wings on the evenly matched side of the grid.