Fernando Alonso and the 33: The reasons why he can reach Monaco today

Fernando Alonso will start in 2nd position in today’s race, the Monaco GP (15.00h/DAZN F1) after seeing how yesterday was Max Verstappen he stole pole position at the horn with an incredible last sector, brushing the walls several times and beating the Spaniard by just 84 thousandths. As Fernando Alonso often says, “the points are distributed on Sundays” and today the Spaniard will continue to increase his chances of winning his first win with Aston Martin and his 33rd F1 victory. Is it possible? The theory says that it is very difficult, although the numbers, not much. As the ‘poleman’ acknowledges, Verstappen, “in Monaco everything is possible and we will see”. Both Max and Fernando knew that any mistake by the Dutchman or a simple problem with his car could bring victory to Fernando. But there are other factors such as rain, safety vehicles or traffic. If the match is even, any detail can change the sign of things.

high chance of rain

On paper, dry Max Verstappen shouldn’t make a driving error that would send him into the wall. At the level he has reached in recent years, now almost flawless and after coming of age in 2021 without fail under the unfortunate pressure of Lewis Hamilton, the Dutchman is not expected to open the door with a mistake for Oviedo. Of course, in the rain, it can be taken for granted. And this is despite the fact that Alonso did not underestimate the fact that it could rain this Sunday, ensuring that the pilots who leave their natural position will benefit more, on the streets of the Principality, in a narrow and erratic layout, with the walls so close and wet, Max was more likely to make a mistake. Especially if Alonso is forcing him.

But there is more. If it rains and the track conditions change to dry, the moment the riders choose to remove the rain or intermediate tires to put on the dry will be key. Forecasting more can bring you glory, or just the opposite. either way, that strategic variation could mean changing positions and further spice up the battle, as happened at the 2022 Monaco GP, which started with most riders putting on intermediate tires. Rain shook the start of the GP.

Strategy and Safety Vehicles

In the beginning it was not expected that there would be changes in the positions. It was very difficult for Alonso to try to attack Verstappen because the first corner was too close and the Spaniard had to focus on having a clean first few meters, avoiding any impact on Esteban Ocon, who was starting at the back. Only an unlikely bad start from the Dutchman would give the Spaniard wings. Sowhether it’s raining or not, the key may be in strategy and the possibility of taking advantage of a safety vehicle.

With the walls so close, safety vehicles have a high chance of spawning. so, a possible strategy to attack Verstappen could be to try to make every stop as possible. If Max entered the pits first and at that moment, led by Alonso, there was an accident and a ‘Safety Vehicle’the Spaniard can make a free stop and stay in the lead, a position that is difficult for him to lose given how difficult it is to overtake on this track.

belts, another possible attack was to find an ‘undercut’, although knowing that any safety vehicle that appeared later could damage him. To do this, Fernando will need to stay close to Max’s car before he stops. In this context, Alonso could stop before Verstappen and push to the maximum on his return to the track.

In Monaco, In that battle, the traffic the two are experiencing at that moment will be key where they should attack hard. Without going any further, Carlos Sainz found last year a crook, Latifi, who bothered him to destroy a possible victory. Even Leclerc had trouble when Albon refused to double the Monegasque. Any similar detail can change everything if the match is even.

Reliability issues for Red Bull

Fernando Alonso already highlighted this after the qualifying session: “Monaco is very demanding on the gearbox, brakes and engine temperature, so there could be an engine problem that makes it easier for us to win… a bad pit stop, although they are the kings of the pit stop, we still get lucky in a race.. or a strategy or safety car. Therefore, we have to stay calm, look at the checkered flag and if it’s 2nd, 2nd, if it’s 3rd, 3rd, and if it’s win, win, but don’t make any mistakes” , commented the Asturian pilot.

It will be remembered that when Fernando achieved his victory in 2007, just behind him, Hamilton complained that he was faster than the man from Oviedo, but he did not know that the Spaniard had reserved the brakes to avoid problems. That was the trigger for their bad relationship and culminated in Alonso’s last win in Monaco. Verstappen had to consider these details and reserve the mechanics of his car. Alonso, with less to lose, will push on, knowing that if Red Bull can have a weak point, it could be reliability.

Red Bull has shown tremendous efficiency in every race, but it has also had reliability issues this year. Max had already suffered a gearbox problem in qualifying in Jeddah. And without going any further, at the last appointment in Miami, while Max was climbing in an amazing way, he said that his gears were not climbing properly. In Monaco, change suffers greatly and any setback that Verstappen may have could open the doors to victory wide for Fernando Alonso.