Zelensky takes advantage of Independence Day celebrations to reiterate that his people will “fight to the end” to keep all their territory
The ‘General Winter’ was the architect of the Soviet Union’s victory over Adolf Hitler’s Germany during World War II. Wehrmacht troops were stranded in the snow and mud at the gates of major Russian cities until they were finally driven back. Vladimir Putin, who reveres those times, is also confident that in the conflict in Ukraine, the cold will tip the scales in his favor.
He is increasingly convinced that it will not be the missiles, tanks or foot soldiers that will ultimately determine the Kremlin’s victory. The “special operation” on Ukrainian soil does not live up to the script written by the military strategists and it seems more than clear that the conflagration is heading for an entrenchment that could lead to situations that the Moscow troops have already experienced in the past at the occupation of Afghanistan or in internal conflicts such as those in Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia or the North Caucasus.
For all these reasons, the Russian president has turned his attention to other battlefields, especially energy. The cold winters of Northern Europe could become the best weapon outside of Ukraine. Putin is betting, according to some sources close to him, that the staggering prices of energy, the potential scarcity and the economic crisis propelled by gas and electricity will convince the EU to force Volodímir Zelensky to agree to sign a truce. “The West will give in to Russia because dictatorships have a strength and lack of consideration for their citizens that allows them to remain steadfast in their positions. There will come a time when Europe will say to Kiev: ‘We have come this far. It’s time to give up something, because the world economy cannot afford to stay at war’”, estimate several sources in Brussels for their part.
It is the only path to peace that the Moscow government sees, already convinced that Zelensky will not negotiate of his own free will until Russia leaves all the occupied territory. This was reiterated by the president on Wednesday during Independence Day celebrations, which coincided with the completion of six months since the start of the war. “We will resist this invasion to the end, without making any concessions or commitments,” he said during the institutional message. “We don’t care about the army they have, we only care about our country. We held out for six months. It’s hard, but we clenched our fists and fought for our fate. Ukraine is all of Ukraine to us. The twenty-five regions,” he added.
Backed by billions in military aid, training and shared intelligence from the United States and other Western countries, and with a series of military operations against Russian targets that have boosted the morale of its troops, Kiev even sees an opportunity to risk the facts. to make. ground. “To enable negotiations, it is necessary to change the status quo at the front. They must suffer major tactical defeats,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a presidential adviser, told Reuters.
The balance of war points to a failure of Moscow. Ukrainian forces thwarted Russian attempts to capture the capital and second city, Kharkov; they regularly destroyed and disrupted Russian supply lines and sunk the ‘Moskva’, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and caused significant damage to an air base in annexed Crimea. By contrast, Moscow does not even fully control the Donbas area, which was initially considered a conquered country because the majority of the population was originally pro-Russian.
However, the Kremlin believes the calendar is working in its favor. “We have time, we can wait,” they point out from Moscow to the British agency Reuters. Convinced that community unity is beginning to crack, Putin predicts a difficult winter for Europeans. “We are about to see protests and riots. Some leaders may think twice before continuing to support Ukraine and think it’s time for an agreement,” they estimate in Moscow. In any case, the official discourse continues along established lines and denies the use of energy as a political weapon.
The same tactic is being maintained in Brussels, from where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen communicated with Ukrainians via Twitter on their national holiday: “The EU has been with you in this battle from the start. And we will stay as long as necessary,” said the German politician.
However, it seems clear that the geopolitical confrontation has pushed energy prices to record levels and that the European Union is paying for it front-row, despite efforts to find alternative supplies and promote energy-saving measures. Few specialists believe that all their needs can be met this winter.
Boris Johnson visited Ukraine on Wednesday during the Independence Day celebrations. The British Prime Minister stressed the “strong will of the Ukrainians to resist” the Russian invasion. In his opinion, it is something Vladimir Putin “didn’t understand”. “You are going to defend your right to a life in peace and freedom, and for that Ukraine is going to win,” he added, announcing a new military aid package worth more than EUR 64 million.
Source: La Verdad
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