A good result for the Five Star Movement in its fief in the southern regions would prevent the absolute majority of the conservative coalition led by Meloni
On this Sunday of the parliamentary elections in Italy, where polls remain open from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m., the focus is on the south of the country. The outcome of the Five Star Movement (M5E) there, the ‘anti-caste’ party that has its traditional breadbasket of votes in the southern regions, will depend on whether the conservative bloc led by Giorgia Meloni can achieve an absolute majority. . A firm favorite in the polls, far-right party candidate Fratelli d’Italia (FdI, Brothers of Italy) has partners in the right-wing alliance Matteo Salvini’s League and Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi’s electoral brand. Their union stands in stark contrast to existing divisions between progressive forces, which have failed to forge a coalition, making them less competitive in the polls.
If the conservatives fail to overcome the 40% of the vote barrier on a large scale, their landing in the next government could be frustrated by the idiosyncrasies of the Italian electoral system. It foresees that approximately two-thirds of the seats will be allocated according to a proportional formula, according to the percentage of votes obtained. The remaining third, on the other hand, is divided into the so-called single-member constituencies, in which the candidate who gets one vote more than the others wins. This electoral law, which should have been reformed initially, was initially passed to promote duality and favor grand coalitions.
It is in the single-member constituencies where the M5E comes into play, which could win a dozen of those seats in the south thanks to its strong defense of so-called citizenship income (equivalent to Spain’s minimum vital income), the star measure approved thanks to this party to supposedly end poverty. It is received by 1.05 million families, two-thirds of them in the southern regions, and has an average cost of just under 600 euros per month. Meloni has been yelling at citizenship income throughout the campaign, promising to end it as he assures it discourages access to the job market, while the M5E candidate, former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, warns that if they eliminate it “it would mean the civil war” and that he is waging “a struggle for the poorest”.
“The surprise that could turn the predictions upside down could come here,” said Roberto D’Alimonte, one of Italy’s most famous political scientists, in an article published last Wednesday in the newspaper ‘Il Sole 24 Ore’. Even within the ranks of the Democratic Party (PD), the main force of Italy’s center-left, heavy voices have emerged in the south of the country calling on the M5E to vote so that it gains one-member associations and assumes absolute power. avoids. majority of the right. “Let’s try to get as many votes as possible: it doesn’t matter if it’s the PD or the M5E,” said Michele Emiliano, regional president of Apulia. For Michele Prospero, professor of political science at La Sapienza University in Rome, this is a “high-risk” strategy on the left, as it can also limit its chances of getting the seats at stake according to the proportional formula. “So the PD could lose a significant proportion of its MPs,” he predicts.
Aside from these political analyses, right-wing voters left the electoral colleges satisfied and hopeful that an absolute majority could be achieved. “I have acquaintances of the left and communists who vote for Meloni today because they believe in the change she means and that she is a serious person,” said Arturo, a Roman lawyer who still works at age 75. Alberto, a middle-aged mason who justified his choice because Meloni had promised to end citizenship income, also took the vote for FdI. “It’s not fair that I kill myself at work every day and my taxes give them money that is slightly less than what I earn from those who don’t give a damn,” he explained. He is a paradigmatic case of what Professor Prospero calls the “evil workers” who have given up the traditional left-wing vote to support Meloni. “Those who have low-skilled jobs believe that, with their salaries so low, it’s unfair that those who don’t work receive citizenship income.”
Source: La Verdad
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