The end is coming for a strange presidential campaign that started with a pandemic and ended the war in Ukraine as a backdrop. In this context, the main political event in the French Republic failed to capture the interest of voters: the first sentiment expressed by citizens when polls are asked about the state of mind of their candidates is “disappointment”. “We have a feeling that nothing convinces the French that there are not strong enough elements that can structure. Neither are individuals,” Bryce Tentourier, director general of the Ipsos polling institute, said in an interview with public radio France Inter a week ago.
The vote, in which Emmanuel Macron comes in as the favorite, with 26.5% of the vote count, according to the latest polls. Five points ahead of its main rival, Marine Le Pen (23%), but by a distance that has been declining in recent weeks. In third place was Jean-Luc Melenchon, the first candidate to represent the left-wing force. Although the specific circumstances surrounding this election leave some uncertainty about the final outcome in the air.
The 2002 election, marked by a first-round ranking of the Jean-Marie Le Pen National Front for the second round, set a record for the restraint registered in the French election (28.4%). A rate that is expected to exceed this year and will be above the 30% threshold for the first time, especially among the youngest and lowest income earners. At this point, restraint presents a dilemma for the current president: on the one hand, massive restraint could mean legitimacy problems for a government that wants to carry out major reforms; On the other hand, experts point out that high turnout contributes to other candidates with better results in these categories, including Marine Le Pen.
The top three candidates in the polls, Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon, hope to gain final power from party voters without a chance of making it to the second round. About 25% of voters confirmed a week ago that their vote would still change depending on the situation, according to the IFOP. The level of uncertainty is particularly pronounced among the candidates with the worst results: the case of Communist Fabien Russell (50% undecided), Socialist Ann Hidalgo (50%) and environmentalist Janik Jadot (58%). This helpful progressive vote can help Melenchon get excited. However, Marine Le Pen also began to demand his own useful vote from Eric Zemor’s voters.
The mobilization of the youth and the useful voice of the left are two trump cards that allow the French insume candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon, to surprise and pass the “mouse hole” that can lead to the second round. “If you really want to cross the Le Pen threshold, I have a more interesting suggestion: do it from the beginning and vote for us,” Melenchon urged voters from other progressive forces. Against him, the fragmentation of left-wing votes – especially the 3% who are going to vote for Russell – and the good dynamics of Marine Le Pen at the end of the campaign. Veterans of three presidential elections, Melenchon and Le Pen, are the only candidates to have achieved positive dynamics in recent weeks when most of their rivals lost their seats.
This has been a priority for years in French politics, which has come to the fore because of the yellow vest crisis. Now, rising inflation and concerns about the consequences of the war in Ukraine have made it an even more pressing issue, with all other issues in the background than security, immigration or the environment. This advantage of economic and social issues is once again supported by Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon, who have made it one of the mainstays of the campaign. Le Pen proposes a reduction in VAT on gasoline and other products, while Melenchon wants to limit fuel prices.
Continuing the trend that started in 2017, this fall will focus on the downfall of the two major parties. The Socialist Party and the Republican Moderate Right (LR) are likely to sign the worst results in their history. What is at stake now is the future of both formations. This week Le Monde Reported at dinner Small Committee Which united the Socialist candidate, Anne Hidalgo, with former President François Hollande and the President of the Occitan region, Carol Delga. A dinner to which the current Secretary-General, Olivier Faure, was not invited and which awaits movements for the next legislature. In the LR, for its part, it is expected that a debate will open between the moderates in favor of a rapprochement with Macron and between the party’s right-wing wing. This week, Marion Marshall appealed to the coalition with Zemur after the election of Eric Chiot, the second LR primer.
Source: El Diario
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
