Whoever makes the best contact with the people, and not just with his constituents, becomes Brazil’s new president.
Finally, the electoral mystery has been solved and a second round is underway in Brazil, despite political and media consensus pushing for a possible victory for Lula in the first. But by not getting half plus one of the valid votes (white and invalid discounted), Brazilians will have to vote again on October 30. On this occasion, along with the presidential elections, the entire Chamber of Deputies, a third of the Senate and all governors and regional parliaments were renewed. The process allowed Bolsonarismo to increase his parliamentary presence and his territorial representation.
The sum of these results is bittersweet for Lula, but it is also not easy for Bolsonaro to manage. Lula is concerned that 48.2% of the votes won were insufficient to secure a final victory and now he must face a very tough runoff if he is to run for the presidency. One of his biggest problems, which he shares with Bolsonaro, is that his rejection rate is very high and makes it difficult to transfer support from the rejected candidates and even from the potential voters who fueled last Sunday’s abstention.
The result also leaves Bolsonaro with mixed feelings. On the one hand, because he easily beat the polls, which predicted a distance of between 10 and 16 percentage points with the former president. This was eventually reduced to just five (about six million votes), allowing him to inflate his chest and wait for the vote with some confidence. On the other hand, because by acknowledging the favorable outcome to some extent, he did not question the validity of the vote or expose fraud (one of his favorite threats), adding to his ignorance of a possible defeat. October 30 complicated.
The second rounds are usually new elections. We’ll have to wait and see what the polls say, despite last Sunday’s massive blunder. Intuitively, the options of the two main candidates seem more equal than in the first ballot, although they seem larger in Lula’s case than in Bolsonaro’s. Confidence is a bad counselor and so whoever wants to win must design and execute an impeccable campaign. Will they be able to do it or will they make certain casual mistakes that may be irreversible and difficult to correct at this point in the process? The one who does the best, the one who connects best with the people, and not just their constituents, will become Brazil’s new president.
Source: La Verdad
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