He sees inflation as the biggest threat, although he believes it has reached a turning point. However, the entity has increased its growth forecast for the Spanish economy in 2022 from 4.1% to 4.4%.
Euskaraz irakurri: BBVA Researchek % 1st jaitsi du 2023rako aurreikusitako hazkunde ekonomikoa
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Spanish will grow to 4.4% in 2022, from the 4.1% expected three months ago in 2022, according to forecasts from BBVA Research, but has lowered that of 2023 from 1.8% to 1%.
This was stated by the Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist of the BBVA Group, George Sicilyduring the press conference to present the new forecasts for the coming quarters.
The entity believes that data from recent months is a weakening of the recoveryso that activity could stagnate in the third quarter of 2022. As indicated, this situation could persist in the coming quarters, or even a moderate decline in GDP evolution due to the rise in the insecurityof the increase in expectations of inflation and of the rise in interest rates.
The Bank of Spain also confirmed the deterioration in economic activity last week and lowered its growth forecast for 2023 to 1.4%.
The stagnation is short-lived and will be reactivated early next year
In any case, the entity believes that the period of stagnation will be short and the recovery will be reactivated from the first months of next year. “We expect the stagnation to be short-lived as some factors mitigate its effects,” said Rafael Domenech, head of economic analysis at BBVA Research.
According to the report, households and businesses are in a better position compared to the previous cycle of interest rate hikes, as they have increased their assets and reduced their liabilities, while the savings built up during the confinement period remain high and investment will increase. sustained thanks to European funds “Next Generation EU”
Inflation peaks but remains high
BBVA Research believes that inflation could have reached a turning point, although it will remain high. In this sense, the experts have again revised the average variation forecast in the CPI upwards in 2022, from 7.9% to 9.3% and from 3.2% to 4.9% in 2023.
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Source: EITB
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
