Macron and Le Pen will face each other in the second round of the French elections with the first rating

Predictions of the first round of the presidential elections in France have been confirmed. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen will meet again in the second round of elections in two weeks, according to the first vote, which was released Sunday after polls closed.

Macron wins the first round with 28.1% of the vote, according to Ipsos’s work for various French media, such as. Le Parisian. In the final round on April 24, the second candidate and rival is the leader of the “National Group”, which received 23.3% of the vote. At the same time, Ifop estimates 28% for Macron for TF and 23.6% for Le Pen.

These early predictions, published after polling stations close, are estimates based on real votes and are often very accurate. Both Macron and Le Pen are improving the 2017 presidential election. In the case of the far-right leader, he has never had such a high percentage of votes.

Third place goes to left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon (France disobedient), who dropped out of the Elysee in the third attempt with 20.1% of the vote, according to Ipsos. Ifop estimates 20.8% for Melenchon.

Fourth place went to far-right commentator Eric Zemor (Reconquest) with 7.2%, while conservative Valerie Pecres (Republicans) dropped by only 5%. In Ifop forecasts, Zemmour gets 7% and Pecres 4.8%.

The first predictions also confirm the tasting of the Socialist Party. According to Ipsos, Paris mayoral candidate Anna Hidalgo remains with 2.1% of the vote. Environmental candidate Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecology The Greens) garnered 4.4%. The percentage that Ifop attributes to Hidalgo is even lower, at 1.8%.

The far-right candidates – Le Pen, Zemor and Nicolas Dupont-Ainian – get 32.8% of the vote, according to Ipsos. According to Ifop, they are concentrated at 32.5%.

Le Pen resistance

The year 2017 will be repeated again and again after an atypical campaign that began with the end of the pandemic and ended with the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a backdrop. Macron, who postponed announcing his official candidacy as much as possible, chose to reduce his participation in the debate and hold one big rally. Leading the polls for months, in recent weeks he has lost points in all polls, while Le Pen has made a difference.

Macron reached 30% in polling intentions polls, but it is believed that his reluctance to get involved in the campaign and the fact that he advocated unpopular reforms – such as postponing retirement age to 65 – you were fined. In addition, in the last part of the campaign, suspicions of government favoritism against the consulting firm McKinsey reactivated its image as the “President of the Rich.” Even so, according to forecasts, the results will improve compared to the first round of 2017.

In the context of this gray campaign, polls have shown that restraint would break the historical record. Although turnout was one of the lowest in the presidential election, at 5:00 pm it was still higher than in 2002, when the lowest turnout was recorded in the first round.

While all polls today name Macron the winner on April 24, the gap between the two candidates is narrowing. According to a recent poll by Ipsos, the president will win re-election with 53% of the vote against a National Association (RN) candidate who gets 47% of the vote in a duel with Macron, a seven-point increase. According to a month ago estimate.

The poll also predicts that Le Pen could get about 21% of Melenchon’s voters, while the right-wing “Golist” Party (LR) candidate Valerie Pekres will get 25%.

Marine Le Pen – weakened by the fall of Eric Zemor’s campaign in the fall of 2021, who stole voters and support – took advantage of this election to change his image. To that end, he used discourse focused on economic and social issues, with immigration, Islam, and security in the background, albeit without substantially changing his agenda. At the same time, Zemor’s outbursts allowed the candidate of the National Association (formerly the National Front), on the contrary, to appear more moderate. Another step in his campaign to normalize the party, which began in 2011 when he ousted his father from the leadership.

A new phase of the campaign is now beginning. The strength of the Republican Front will stand the test of time against the far right. Wait for the impact of the televised debate: In 2017, Marine Le Pen lost six points after a unanimously criticized performance. In this regard, the tone of the candidates’ declarations with a request to vote for Macron will set the tone.

Hidalgo was the first to vote for Macron. “Solemnly, please vote for the far right of Marine Le Pen using the ballot of Emmanuel Macron. The mayor of Paris also acknowledged the seriousness of the crisis in the Socialist Party. “I know how frustrated you are and we will draw the appropriate conclusions,” and I am confident he will continue to “use his energy as a policy for a stronger, more beautiful and just Republican France.”

Moderate right-wing candidate Pekres also demanded a vote against the far right, though he explained that he was doing it personally. “I’m deeply concerned about the future of our country, with the extreme right, which has never been so close to victory. “I will vote in good faith for Emmanuel Macron to prevent Marine Le Pen from coming to power and causing chaos,” Pecresse said minutes after the first results were announced.

“I do not have the votes that have been cast in my name,” he said. Generations. Choose another option besides me. ”

Environmental candidate Jadoti worries that “ecology is not in the second round.” “But it should not exist for the next five years.” Next, the MEP called on his supporters to vote for the incumbent. “I urge the far right to block the vote on Emmanuel Macron by voting on April 24. “No one should underestimate the fundamental threat posed by the ultra-right.”

Political recomposition

While there were no surprises, this week the results prolong the political earthquake that followed the 2017 presidential election. Macron and Le Pen again proved to be the two main alternatives, this election also continued the fall of the big traditional parties that are barely collecting. Up to 7% of the vote according to forecasts.

This drop in the two formations in power until 2017 reflects a whole new political landscape ahead of the legislative elections scheduled for June. Two blocs are emerging in the left-wing forces: on the one hand, the Communists and the French Insumia, who have been negotiating in recent weeks, and on the other, the Socialists and the environmentalists.

It was the environmental candidate, Yannick Jadot, who launched the campaign with hints of progressive forces after the 2019 European elections, where the third party European Ecology Greens won with 13.5% of the vote and the municipal elections. 2020, in which he won several major cities such as Lyon, Grenoble and Bordeaux. But the truth is that the magician was never able to raise his issues in the campaign, even though the environment is the third concern of the French, according to polls.

The aftermath of the Ukraine war, especially rising energy and fuel prices, overshadowed other issues. Neither the publication of the last two reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), nor the progress in favor of climate change, nor the issue of energy and food sovereignty raised during the Ukraine war, failed to address environmental issues. The two finalists are not in the debates and speeches.