“The Russian army will be the same Russian army next week, whether we buy gas from it”

The outcome of a war in the short run does not depend so much on sanctions as on arms. This is what the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, defended at the end of the EU Council of Foreign Ministers in Luxembourg this Monday: Which will happen in the coming days and in the next few weeks they will happen with or without sanctions. Sanctions have a medium-term effect. The Russian army will be the same Russian army next week and next week, whether we buy gas from them. In the coming days, the Russian army will be able to wage war. So you need to focus on the defensive aspects. This is what is most important right now. I’m not going to say you should not do anything else. But do not flatter yourself, if Russian gas is cut off next week, it does not mean that the Russian army will have less means to fight. The defense aspects, the assistance to Ukraine, is what is important at the moment.

There is a dotted line: from coal to oil; And from oil to gas. The European Commission and the 27 agreed on an embargo on Russian coal at the end of last week. The embargo, which will not end until August 10, when the four-month cadence expires to expire all agreements with Russia.

The first energy embargo on coal, the fuel that the EU buys the least, came after the Bucha massacre, which was visited this Friday by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Joseph Borrell. Borrell himself said that this Monday, in Luxembourg, EU foreign ministers were discussing an oil embargo that was not very clear to his team last Friday.

But the truth is that as soon as they arrived at the meeting, all the ministers were asked about it, and Borrell himself admitted: “Sanctions are always on the table. Talking about Ukraine means discussing the effectiveness of our sanctions, the sanctions that have already been decided and what steps we need to take.

Germany is one of the countries that is most dependent on Russian fossil fuels and, consequently, along with Hungary, is one of the most reluctant to extract oil and gas from Russia. Thus, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said this Monday morning: “We discussed this within the EU last week and decided to export all fossil fuels from Russia, just like the EU. . As the German Federal Government, we have already stated that there will be a complete phasing out of fossil fuels, starting with coal, then with oil and gas. And in order for it to be used jointly in the EU, we need a jointly agreed plan to be able to fully exclude fossil fuels as the EU does. ”

European Commission spokeswoman Dana Spinat from Brussels said: “Our work is ongoing, we have no announcements to make. This is a process that takes time, but our task is to make sure that it is successful. “But there are no statements that I can make about oil right now.”

“We need to take a maximalist approach to sanctions in order to have more restraint in the face of this war and this atrocity,” Irish Foreign and Defense Minister Simon Cowen said at a meeting in Luxembourg. And that should include, in our view, oil. We know that this is very difficult for some member states and we need to maintain a common position across the EU. But now we have coal as part of the sanctions package and we know that the Commission is working on a new package which we hope to see soon, which also includes oil.

Cowan added: “The EU is spending hundreds of millions of euros on oil imports from Russia. This helps finance the war. And, in our view, we must stop funding this war, even though it poses enormous challenges and problems that the EU must tackle together. We have to wait and see what the commission will say, they are working to ensure that oil is part of the next sanctions package. The sooner this happens, the better. ”

“We are going to analyze this situation, no doubt,” said Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares when asked about the Russian oil embargo. “And there are two things to consider. On the one hand, to avoid financing Vladimir Putin’s war with European money and funds. And at the same time, we need to think about European citizens and not destabilize certain countries whose energy structure has traditionally been closely linked to Russia. “I am confident that these two parameters will be and Spain will be in solidarity with the decisions taken within the EU.”

For his part, Danish Foreign Minister Jepe Kofod explained that the EU was going to “continue to put pressure on Russia to stop the war.” Kofod acknowledged: “We are already considering the sixth package of sanctions and the Danish side is ready to go as far as we can to seek a consensus on sanctions, including energy. I am very pleased with the fifth package we have now: seaports, transport, aircraft fuel … This is a very important meeting where we see how to increase spending for Russia, what they are doing and also see how we can further support it. Ukraine.

In this regard, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis was rude: “The only thing that makes me happy is that the European Commission has made it very clear that it is starting work on options for an oil impact on the sixth package of sanctions. “It means that the work of reaching a consensus between the 27 has already begun and I hope that this time it will happen.”

“Russia has been affected by the sanctions,” said Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra. For us all options remain on the table. We are ready to look at other aspects, including energy, before we can be sure that we will maintain unity in the EU.

According to Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky, “the question is what needs to be done in the EU to impose an embargo on oil and gas and other major commodities. The Czech Republic supports the toughest possible sanctions we can apply to Russia.

“We have now approved a package of sanctions in which we take a step forward on coal,” said Swedish Foreign Minister Anne Linde. I think it can withstand oil. We are moving and more and more people are realizing how important this is. I do not think we will reach a full agreement, but those who strive to do so will do as much as possible. ”

Hunger

“Russia is causing famine in the world,” said Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign minister, who blamed Russia for bombing wheat silos and blocking Ukraine’s grain exports. “The result is war and not sanctions,” he said.

“Another battle,” Borrell said, “is a battle of narratives. A struggle over how people perceive this war and which marks the geopolitical orientation of the world for decades. The geopolitical landscape will be fundamentally changed by this war, so we must continue this foreign alliance effort, as Russian diplomacy avoids allegations of sanctions. “If vaccine diplomacy came, now comes food diplomacy, because the Russians are blaming us for the food crisis and saying it’s because of sanctions.”

Borrell insisted: “No, it’s not because of sanctions, it’s because of military aggression, it’s because of the Russian bombing, it’s because of the Russian fleet blocking the departure of cargo ships from Ukrainian ports. With grain that cannot leave the ports, wheat warehouses are deliberately dragged out so as not to be exported by ships that can no longer leave the ports of Ukraine. And this is what causes food shortages, in addition, they bomb Ukrainian cities and cause world hunger. It is they, the Russians, who are causing world hunger by blocking wheat exports and destroying silos in Ukraine. So stop blaming Europe for sanctions. The food shortage is caused by the Russian army. And in Africa we also have another problem due to the impact of the countries on the food crisis we are facing.

Attack from the east

The head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell also spoke about the military campaign. “I am afraid that Russian troops are gathering in the east to attack Donbass. The Ukrainians know this very well,” he said. “I am afraid that the war will escalate in the coming days. Donbass. Wars are usually won or lost on the battlefield. We have witnessed what is happening there, the brutal, brutal aggression of Russian troops against civilians. You can go to Kiev, you have to go to Kyiv as much as possible and become what happens. ”

“This is a war,” Borrell said, “and it has a predominant military dimension. The Russians took the war in Ukraine absolutely unnecessarily, without any provocations. This is the war of the man who declared this war on Putin. And he was unable to take Kiev. They wanted a blitzkrieg and were remarkably successful. I saw Russian tanks destroyed. They did not have to retreat. They were unable to take Kiev and are now gathering their forces in the Donbas. Russia is going to start a war, as the Russian army is waging war like a steam wheel, it will lead to more civilian casualties. Ukraine is preparing for a new phase of this war. And it is clear that we are going to help them. How? “Well, the military, because we are not involved in the war, and the only way to help them is to provide them with enough equipment so that they can fight.”