The result was to be expected, but the election night of the first round of the presidential election left surprises in France. The second round on April 24 between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron seems more uncertain than what they fought five years ago. The president is still the frontrunner, but this week’s polls predict a much sharper difference than then: Ipsos estimates 54% of the vote for the president and 46% for the far-right leader; For Ifop, 51% for Macron, 49% for Le Pen.
Anyway, the recomposition of the political scene starting in 2017 continues. “The current head of state and the candidate of the National Association (RN) were trying to reaffirm the division between the progressives and the nationalists at that time. “Traditional right-left shift,” analyzes the newspaper Le Monde.
At the last minute, Macron, Le Pen and left-wing leader Jean-Luc Melenchon got a push at the cost of the votes of the other candidates, who got a worse-than-expected result. The three largest votes grouped almost three-quarters of the votes.
Specifically, Melenchon was one step away from calling for a surprise and going to the second round, at 21.95%. A figure that would have been impossible without attracting potential voters from Socialist Ann Hidalgo (1.75%) and environmentalist Janik Jadoti (4.63%). A similar phenomenon occurred with far-right Le Pen, who signed his best-ever result at the expense of Eric Zemor, who ultimately failed to reach double-digit figures (7.07%) as expected and also probably at part price. Conservative candidate Valerie Pekres, a voter who fell below 5%.
Just 20 years after the first and unexpected classification of the National Front for the second round of the presidential election, Marine Le Pen set a new record for its formation, called the National Group, and improved on the 2017 records.
In this case, the election configuration is more favorable than it was five years ago: it has back-up votes for the second round (albeit less than expected) thanks to Zemor, Nicolas Dupont-Aigan (2.06%) and partly Pekres (4.78). %). Le Pen, on the other hand, will try to turn the second round into a referendum against Macron in order to attract – or even demobilize – the left wing.
In his first speech after examining the results, Le Pen described his “social ambition,” his struggle for what he called “decent wages and pensions,” an “accessible quality health care system,” and “decent housing.” A message to attract additional electorate from Melenchon voters.
In this regard, the barometer of Le Parisien and the French Public Broadcaster, Ipsos-Sopra Steria, indicate that 30% of Melenchon’s voters could vote for Le Pen – an option that the left-wing leader insisted on avoiding 34% of election night. , 36% even abstained. The transfer of votes to the French Insumiza voter will be a crucial element in the second round.
In 2019, under pressure from the Yellow Vest protest, one of Macron’s responses was to organize a large national debate that swept him across the country, except for the creation of a Climate Citizen Convention. The government presented them as “advisory tools for overcoming the crisis.” Along the same lines, a month ago, Macron was persuaded that in the event of re-election, he would lead a “new big debate” with the whole French, on a “permanent” basis, around various projects to “take responsibility for the reforms”. It is shared. ”
Against this background, on election night, he reiterated a new strategy for institutional dialogue: he called for the creation of a “great political movement of unity and action.” Nevertheless, 70% of French people perceive the actions of the current president as “authoritarian”, according to a survey by Ifop.
“The debate that will take place over the next fifteen days is crucial for our country and for Europe,” Macron warned. Both the president and several of his ministers stress the risk of the alliance between France and Le Pen and Vladimir Putin leaving the EU, which could be jeopardized if the “populist and xenophobic international” leader wins. National Association. This scenario means that the founding member of the European Union and one of the engines of the public economy is driven by Eurosceptic extreme rightists.
The possibility of Le Pen’s victory worries Brussels and Berlin, two targets of attacks by the president of the National Association. “On April 24, the French are facing a fundamental choice: for or against the EU,” he said on Sunday. Twitter Leader of the European Socialists and Democrats (S&D) Iratche Garcia Perez.
Marin Le Pen is no longer in favor of leaving the EU. It is now inspired by the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, who is seen as an element of destabilizing the EU and its values. “Le Pen’s victory will have an impact beyond France,” writes The Financial Times. “It would deal a terrible blow to liberal democracy in the Western world and throw twenty-seven people into disarray, just as the United States and its allies are locked in a fight with President Vladimir Putin over authoritarian Russia over Ukraine.
With the rise of the National Front in the 1980s, all-party coalitions began against Jean-Marie Le Pen. The culmination of this Republican front was the 2002 presidential election, with a unanimous call for a vote for Jacques Chirac. But since then cracks have reappeared in the coalition.
In this case, the Socialists, environmentalists and communists – whose candidate Fabien Russell received 2.3% of the vote – quickly demanded a vote for Macron to prevent the victory of the far right. However, the presidential party is afraid to restrain Melenchon’s electorate and part of the moderate right. As in 2017, when he was also at the gate of the second round (19.58%), Melenchon announced that he would consult with his bases on what kind of attitude to establish. So blank sound was the preferred option. In any case, Melenchon made a clear appeal on the eve of the election against the far right. “We should not vote for Le Pen,” he repeated several times.
Meanwhile, in the right-wing Republican Party (LR), MP Eric Chioti, who said he would vote for Zemur in a duel with Macron, said he would not vote for the president. “Three-quarters of the French voted against the current system, against Macron’s policies,” Chiot said. The LR candidate, Pecres, asked to vote – in person – for Macron.
Ten years after the victory of François Hollande, Anna Hidalgo got an even worse result than Benoit Hamon in 2017 (6.36%). The mayor of Paris tried to campaign based on the experience of himself and the socialist mayors, but was unable to arouse interest in his proposals. The bad polls that followed him after he announced his candidacy have monopolized his media coverage of his campaign.
Now the party is trying to regroup for the June 12 legislative elections. But, apart from the bad results, he has a problem of internal division: this Sunday night, before members of the mayor’s campaign called for a “union of left-wing forces” with environmentalists and communists, Secretary-General Olivier Foret quickly left Hidalgo. The headquarters will demand the re-establishment of the Left, in a separate statement.
Source: El Diario
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
