Military expert: – ‘Ukraine has little time for reconquests’

Ukraine is currently – not entirely – at the mercy of Russia’s massive attacks with drones from Iran. The Ukrainians intercepted many drones, but not all – and the Russians targeted transformer substations and power nodes. Up to 40 percent of energy supply infrastructure has already been destroyed, Sandtner said in an interview with APA on Thursday. Ukraine urgently needs more anti-aircraft weapons. Sandtner does not believe that the West could go too far with arms supplies.

Expert does not believe in ‘nuclear escalation’
Although Russia has red lines, no western battle tanks or armored personnel carriers have been delivered yet. “But deliveries of anti-aircraft weapons, for example from Germany and the US, have been coming in for months. I do not believe that these arms deliveries are a direct cause for a nuclear escalation,” said the military expert in response to a question. However, with regard to arms supplies from the West to Ukraine, the Russian rationale is not always understandable.

Over time, the West has approached what can be delivered and has become increasingly offensive. But tanks are what the Ukrainians need to launch new offensives and recapture areas in the spring. This year the rainy season has already started and it is becoming increasingly difficult for the troops to move around. If the Ukrainians want to achieve anything this year, it must be done in the coming weeks.

Russians draw defense lines
Because the Russians are bringing more reservists to the area and setting up defenses. Sandtner cites the southern city of Kherson on the Dnieper River as an example. So far it has remained relatively undamaged. If the Ukrainians tried to drive the Russians out with enormous force, it would mean terrible destruction in the city. But it is difficult to say what the Ukrainian leaders are up to.

Of the three possible scenarios in Kherson Oblast, Sandtner considers the most likely that the Russians want to at least keep the city of Kherson and that the other troops can withdraw across the Dnieper if necessary. In this connection, Sandtner points to a possible Ukrainian force group in the Zaporizhzhya area that has not yet been deployed. The objective could be to break through the weak Russian defense line with these troops before the winter towards Melitopol on the Azov Sea. “This could potentially lead to a collapse of the Russian front between Crimea and Donbass.”

‘Dirty bomb’ as ‘weapon of mass insecurity’
On the question of further escalation, however, Sandtner rules out that the Ukrainians – as Russia claims – want to detonate a “dirty bomb” on their own soil. That’s what conventional explosives are called that also spread radioactive material. A “dirty bomb” is “not a weapon of mass destruction in the classic sense, but rather a weapon of mass insecurity, where the psychological effect at least exceeds the radiological effect,” Sandtner says.

In his opinion, the Russians want to “sow fear and terror” with this announcement. The purpose of deploying this weapon is to “serve the psychological story” and not to achieve success on the battlefield. The effect of such a bomb depends on its size, but is in any case limited to a small area or region. Of course, the release of radionuclides (after a targeted attack) from a nuclear power plant would cause significantly greater damage. Such a thing does not fall under the term “dirty bomb”.