His great challenge will be to reconcile the great ideological mix that regional progressivism assumes, from the authoritarian government of Venezuela to the social democrat of Chile
On Sunday night, almost all of Latin American progressivism lifted their songs of thanks to the heavens, but especially to Lula, who had enabled them to restore their self-esteem after the brutal defeat suffered by the “approval” in the Chilean constitutional plebiscite. As a Spanish newspaper puts the title, trying to provide a continental framework for the former Brazilian president’s victory: “Latin America’s five major economies will be ruled by the left for the first time.”
Besides the cyclical nature of the claim (Argentina presidential elections will be held in October 2023, with many options for official defeat), some basic issues are more important than the color of the president’s shirt, such as public policies to be developed to from a difficult time like this. We must also not forget the composition of Parliament, the division of territorial power, the alliances with the center and the formalized right to reach the presidency and the number of votes cast and won in the elections that required a second round. In this case, all except Mexico.
Both within and outside Latin America, much attention and analysis has focused on how a likely victory for Lula would affect Brazil’s environmental policy, regional balances and even international standing. And while foreign policy was not much of a focus during the election campaign, as in the rest of the world, it is not an afterthought, as in Brussels.
In recent years, and as a result of President Bolsonaro’s decisions, Brazil has withdrawn from the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and maintains a frosty relationship with Kirchnerist Argentina and Alberto Fernández. Both orientations will be reversed, although Brazilian enthusiasm for CELAC, an institution overseen by Mexico, is quite limited. In the traditional line of Itamaraty, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there are already serious attempts to revive Unasur, albeit without the political-ideological bias of the past.
Lula’s big problem will be to make South America compatible with Latin America and to reconcile the great ideological mix that comes with regional progressivism, which ranges from the authoritarian governments of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua to the more ‘ social democratic’ governments of Chile and Colombia. , without forgetting the populist experiments in Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras, Mexico and Peru.
It will not be an easy task, and even more so at a time as complicated as today’s, where many of Lula’s most pragmatic answers will openly contradict the policies of his more ideological colleagues. Despite the winning candidate’s efforts to capture at least some of the evangelical votes, his ability to perform miracles is quite limited. While his victory will affect the realignment of regional balances, the new president will thus be totally unable to make Latin America speak with one voice. Because it is not able, it will not even be able to get the progressives to do it in a harmonious and concerted way.
Source: La Verdad
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