Easing required – discussion after Drosten statement on endemics

“We are experiencing the first endemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 this winter and in my opinion the pandemic is over,” said the head of virology at Berlin’s Charité University Hospital. Immunity in the population will be so broad and resilient after this winter that the virus will hardly be able to get through in the summer, the dpa quoted him as saying on Monday. Drosten mentioned another mutational jump as the only limitation. “But I don’t expect that at the moment.”

Corona is now one of the other common colds
Virologist Dorothee Von Laer of the Medical University of Innsbruck agreed with Drosten that the pandemic is over. Corona has “popped out” and is now part of the other set of colds or viral infections like the flu, Von Laer explained to the APA. Covid-19 will stay that way. The Innsbruck virologist also cited the broad basic immunity that now exists in the population, which means that far fewer people get sick and if they do, it’s not as bad as it used to be.

Several experts agree with Drosten’s statement
The Austrian geneticist Ulrich Elling also agrees with the statement by the German virologist Christian Drosten that the first endemic wave with SARS-CoV-2 is now rolling. “The pandemic in that sense” is over, but Covid-19 “is here to stay,” said Elling.

If you define ‘pandemic’ as meaning that a new pathogen affects an immunologically unprepared population, then this phase of tackling the pathogen SARS-CoV-2 is actually almost over, says the researcher from the Institute of Molecular Biotechnology. (IMBA) researchers working at the Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) in conversation with the APA. If Drosten now speaks of an endemic disease, then it is, because the vast majority of people who have already been exposed to the pathogen are now infected with Covid-19.

Are currently experiencing an “endemic wave”.
After the omicron variant caused widespread infection in Austria for about a year and, relatively recently, the BA.5 subvariant caused a wave of about two million infected people and thus recently recovered, “humans have now built up a broad immunological base,” says Elling. So you are currently dealing with an “endemic wave”. In the older age cohorts you probably find people who really haven’t had a covid infection yet. In addition, protection against re-infection after infection lasts longer than originally thought.

However, you are now seeing the strong “pandemic aftermath”, with many RS virus and flu infections. In addition, there is a certain “hollowing out of the health system”, where the workforce, often depleted and depleted by the pandemic, again faces a very high burden, and resources are lacking, especially in the area of ​​​​children . In many contexts, structural problems would now become more tangible as a result of cuts in the health sector.

Frequency of infection is still uncertain
With SARS-CoV-2, there is now, as it were, a new virus in the portfolio of common pathogens, “that will remain”, Elling stressed. It is difficult to estimate how often people can actually become infected with it in the long term.

This also depends on the further variability of the pathogen. The researcher has long been part of the team that scientifically analyzes the continued rapid genetic development of the virus. In order for system-critical overloads of SARS-CoV-2 to reoccur in the current situation, a “completely crazy combination” would have to develop. Elling does not see such a “game changer” on the horizon at the moment, which also significantly increases the “severity of the disease”, and he also thinks it is increasingly unlikely.

Continue to outline the development of variants
However, the possibility remains as a “dark horse”. The geneticist therefore advocates maintaining a scientific overview of the development of variants. Compared to many other measures during the pandemic, this is really not expensive, according to the scientist.

May be approaching an endemic stage
Epidemiologist Eva Schernhammer, a member of the Austrian Gecko Commission, suggested five days ago that we could be approaching an endemic phase. The available indicators currently support this. “If the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infections remains relatively constant or becomes predictable, as is the case with the flu, for example, because the wave-like seasonal phenomenon is relatively easy to anticipate.”

In this context, however, the gecko stated that Corona will also cause problems if the condition is endemic, simply because there will be a higher burden of disease worldwide. In addition, “Long Covid” will affect general well-being and ability to earn a living and drive up healthcare costs.

Development does not necessarily have to be positive
Schernhammer warned that when a disease becomes endemic, it does not necessarily mean a positive development: “Malaria, for example, is endemic at certain latitudes. However, that does not make malaria any less dangerous.”

An endemic disease is defined as an infectious disease that has become endemic and constantly occurring within a limited area – such as cholera, plague and typhoid – in Central Europe pulmonary tuberculosis, measles or scarlet fever. An epidemic is the very frequent occurrence of a disease that is limited in place and time. This includes many tropical diseases such as dengue, but also cholera, flu, typhoid, plague and polio.

When does a pandemic occur?
An epidemic that spreads across countries and continents is called a pandemic. Think of AIDS, but also of the plague in the Middle Ages or the flu, which led to three pandemics in the 20th century. The “Spanish flu” of 1918 killed between 25 and 50 million more people than in World War I. This was followed in 1957 by the “Asian flu” with about a million deaths and the “Hong Kong flu” in 1968 with about 700,000 deaths worldwide. The spread of Corona also became a pandemic in 2020.