According to the Bilbao economist, data from recent months suggest that the upward trend of the Euribor will continue next year. Nor does it rule out interest rates exceeding the 3% limit.
The economist Nico Cuenca analyzed the economic forecasts for the new year and the factors that will be important in an interview in Euskadi Irratia. He believes that the scenario does not look particularly encouraging for now: prices and interest rates will generally continue the upward trend in the first months of 2023, but signs are already visible in the market that could change the trend towards the end of the year.
Cuenca referred, among other things, to the Euribor, the reference indicator for most mortgages in the Spanish state, and recalled the recent statements by the President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde: “There is no doubt that the Euribor will continue to rise , but the question is how much. That is, what remains to be seen is the scope of that increase.” In this sense, it has indicated that it is possible for this reference indicator to exceed the 3% limit.
However, the Bilbao economist says that “there are already signs in some markets predicting a decline in 2024”. “It is expected to continue to rise in 2023, but it is already expected to start falling in 2024.”
Cuenca has also referred to inflation. In July, year-on-year inflation rose to 10.8%, the highest rate in the past 48 years. Since then, inflation has been falling and stood at 5.8% in December, one point less than the previous month. In turn, underlying inflation – which is calculated without taking into account unprocessed food and energy products – has risen to 6.9%, six-tenths higher than the November data. According to the INE, this moderation is due to electricity prices, which rise less than in December 2021, as fuels record a larger decline than last year. On the other hand, the prices of clothing and footwear have fallen less than in December 2021, and those of tobacco and processed food have risen.
“You have to look at the underlying inflation. It is not common for the underlying inflation to be above the general, but it also has its logic: food that is fresh first is processed later in the production chain. Pods for example, they do not enter the core inflation , but it does when they are sold as canned goods. As headline inflation falls, core inflation will also fall,” he said.
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Source: EITB
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
