According to model calculations by independent researchers, the massive corona wave in China could reach its first peak on Friday with 3.7 million new infections per day. As reported by London-based data processor Airfinity, the number of Covid deaths in the country is likely to rise to a high of 25,000 a day ten days later.
It is estimated that more than half a million people in China have died from Covid-19 since the wave of infections began in early December. Airfinity also predicts that the death toll should rise to a total of 1.7 million by the end of April. China no longer publishes current data. According to a very narrow definition, the authorities only count someone as a corona death who has died of pneumonia or respiratory failure after an infection.
The Lunar New Year may bring the virus to the countryside
According to its model calculations, Airfinity predicts another peak in the wave of infections in early March, when 4.2 million people could probably become infected every day. This second wave is likely to hit rural areas more strongly. For the Chinese New Year on January 22, hundreds of millions of Chinese travel to their home countries or to visit relatives. Experts fear that they will transfer the virus from the now-affected metropolises to small and medium-sized cities and rural areas where medical care is not as good.
Many elderly Chinese without adequate vaccination protection
Many elderly people live in rural areas in particular and in China they are usually insufficiently vaccinated for fear of side effects. According to state media, 25 million people over the age of 60 are completely unprotected. Of the 240 million Chinese over the age of 60, about 75 percent would have received a boost. However, this figure is only around 40 percent among the elderly over the age of 80.
After three years of lockdowns, mass testing and enforced quarantine, China abruptly abandoned its zero-Covid strategy in early December, citing the disease’s milder course. The measures were no longer able to cope with the explosive spread of Omikron. In addition, the second largest economy was increasingly affected by the restrictions. The massive wave of infections that followed left many hospitals unprepared.
Source: Krone
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