In its new “Executive Report” presented on Wednesday, the GECKO committee referred to the expected increase in infections by the Corona Prognosis Consortium. “The prognosis is based on a further increase in the number of cases. The same development is also predicted for the floor coverings in the normal and intensive care units,” according to the report. A peak in the number of cases is therefore possible in August or September.
In particular, the GECKO report refers to the ommicron sub-variant BA.5, which is currently driving a wave in Portugal. “In Austria, we are seeing an almost weekly doubling of the proportion of BA.5/BA.4 in new infections,” the report said.
In calendar week 23 (via the AGES polling system), a share of 35.9 percent was determined for BA.4/5 – the share was still 18.4 percent the week before. The report also points out that the ommicron subvariant is likely to have an impact on the effectiveness of existing antibody therapies.
Wave of infection likely inevitable
According to the report, simulation researcher Niki Popper presented scenarios for the course of immunity until the end of 2022 in the committee for further developments in Austria. In all assumed realistic scenarios (this is emphatically not a prognosis, please note) waves of infection would arise, “which in turn lead to re-immunization (and thus peaks)”.
In a “BA.2 scenario,” up to 350,000 cases (15-25 percent) could be prevented if 50 percent of all primary immunized recipients received another booster shot, the report said. Additional booster vaccinations could further reduce the maximum hospital occupancy rate, in some cases by as much as 25 percent.
Yet the autumn wave is not spared
Popper expects the next wave (depending on the scenario defined) either in October/November or earlier – namely when (sub)variants other than BA.2 proliferate (as currently foreseeable, note). In that case, the number of cases will already increase in June and July, before generating a peak in August or September.
Should this happen, the next “autumn wave” will occur a little later and less pronounced (if cross-immunity exists). This is of course not certain: “If other (sub) variants spread correspondingly faster, these processes can be shifted even further forward,” according to the report.
Concerns about burdens for hospitals
With regard to the effects on the health system, Popper explains in the committee that a rapid, high peak in a shorter time can lead to high deposits in intensive care and normal wards. “However, if you first get a smaller wave in early autumn and then a reduced wave in winter, the current exposure in the hospital is also lower according to the simulation (depending on the virulence of the new dominant variant), especially in the intensive care units,” the report said.
Vaccination clear
The Commission also refers to a study on the effectiveness of vaccinations in Vienna: a review of (not yet validated) data from the Vienna State Medical Directorate shows that mortality among unvaccinated people remained constant throughout the entire period of the pandemic (research period February 26, 2020 to April 7, 2022). “That is, the apparently lower mortality of the delta and omicron variants is an artifact of population immunization coverage.”
The NIG currently recommends a fourth stab for people over the age of 80, for those over 65 the NIG specification states that such a refresher “can” take place. It is not recommended for younger people, but should also “not be remembered” if desired.
Source: Krone
I’m Wayne Wickman, a professional journalist and author for Today Times Live. My specialty is covering global news and current events, offering readers a unique perspective on the world’s most pressing issues. I’m passionate about storytelling and helping people stay informed on the goings-on of our planet.
