West is skeptical – A year of war: China calls for a ceasefire

China’s attempts to get more involved in a peace solution with proposals are viewed with skepticism, as China’s leaders have not even condemned Russia’s war of aggression to this day. The chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the German Bundestag, Michael Roth, has little hope for the peace initiative announced by China. “The Chinese are not acting neutrally in this war, but are supporting Russia politically and economically,” the SPD politician told the ntv.de news site.

“Dialogue and negotiations are the only viable solution to the crisis in Ukraine,” the Chinese newspaper said. “Conflict and war serve no one. All parties must remain rational, exercise restraint and not fan the flames, and prevent the crisis from worsening or even getting out of hand.” China also insists that UN principles be strictly adhered to.

Concession to Ukraine?
“The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively maintained,” reads the paper’s first point, which observers often associate with Ukraine’s original borders. At the same time, however, it also calls for the “legitimate security interests of all countries to be taken seriously”. Diplomats see this wording as a clear reference to Russia’s argument that it must defend itself against the United States and NATO.

In the document, China also calls for mitigation of the strategic risks of war: “Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought.” The threat of the use of nuclear weapons must also be rejected. The document is entitled “China’s position on the political solution to the crisis in Ukraine”. However, diplomats in Beijing were hesitant to describe the proposals as a “new peace initiative” or “peace plan”.

Xi delivers ‘peace speech’
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine a year ago, China has always supported Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing the US and NATO as the actual cause of the crisis. The “peace speech” that Chinese President Xi Jinping will give on Friday will therefore be followed with great interest. Experts do not expect this to be accompanied by a change of course away from Russia.

“China’s peace efforts remain rhetorical for now,” said Li Mingjiang, a professor of international relations at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Real deeds are not to be expected at first. “It will be a minor adjustment, not a substantial change in China’s policy on the war,” the analyst told Reuters. Diplomats and China experts agree that when it comes down to it, China stands by Russia. “The biggest contribution China could make would be to withdraw aid to Russia, call on Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine and provide financial support to Ukraine,” said a European diplomat. “That’s not very realistic.”

China-Russia summit
Russia, largely isolated internationally since the invasion of Ukraine, has always been able to count on its partner China. This was most recently evident with the visit of China’s top diplomat Wang Yi to Moscow on Wednesday. During their meeting, he and Putin announced that they would deepen the partnership between their two countries. President Xi also wants to travel to Putin soon. Xi has spoken regularly with Putin over the past year, but not once with Ukrainian President Zelensky.

Experts and diplomats agree that China has no real interest in ending the war in Ukraine if it means Russia’s defeat. Since 2022, Chinese imports of Russian goods have skyrocketed, while trade with Ukraine has declined. China could buy oil cheaper while increasing volumes. This means that Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on its large neighbor in Asia. Diplomats and experts do not expect arms deliveries to Russia for the time being. But if Russia proves to be defeated, China will want to avoid it, says Tong Zhao, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Foundation.

China wants to weaken US influence
Because defeat could endanger both Putin and his government and create insecurity in gigantic Russia. “For Beijing, the key question is not whether the war should end, but how,” said Benjamin Herscovitch, a researcher at the Australian National University. “For China, Russia is still central to weakening US power and influence and building a multipolar world.”