Russia and Ukraine are waiting for a peace agreement, which is waiting for Putin’s approval

Not a peace agreement or a ceasefire, but in the hope that an agreement will be reached to end the war in Ukraine (if Putin wants to). Thus ended this Tuesday’s meeting between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey, where some of the red lines marked by both countries seem to be blurred. The road seems long again. Ukraine refuses to join NATO. Russia starts withdrawing troops from Kiev. And both are handing over big hot potatoes to the rest of the Western powers: which countries will they sign as a guarantor of Ukraine’s security in a possible peace deal?

This is what we now know about the main points of a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine:

Partial withdrawal of Russian troops

Withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine is one of the points that stood in all negotiations as a precondition for a ceasefire and a peace agreement.

By this time Russia had announced only a partial withdrawal of its troops from Kiev, Chernigov, and northern Ukraine. Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister, Alexander Fomin, has said the partial withdrawal is aimed at “increasing mutual trust” in the context of the talks.

At the same time, the Moscow Defense Ministry reaffirmed its intention to continue what it calls a “special operation” until it achieves its goals.

Earlier, Russia had lowered expectations that Kiev was not their priority and that they would focus on attacking Donbas.

According to US and UK defense analysts, Russian troops have been in these parts of the country for weeks and have supply problems. Ukrainian forces managed to counterattack by Russian forces and retake several areas near Kiev.

But this first step is far from a ceasefire and the attacks on the country continue. Before talks began in Turkey, Ukrainian authorities condemned a Russian rocket attack on a high-rise building of the Mykolaiv regional government on the Black Sea coast. According to the ambulance service, at least seven people were killed and 22 injured.

Ukraine will not join NATO …

This was one of the main demands of Russia to grant Ukraine neutral status and to renounce its aspirations to join NATO. Kiev has accepted this resignation and subsequently agrees not to host military bases or nuclear weapons.

In return he demands that in the event of a new attack his security be guaranteed by several countries.

It also undertook not to conduct military exercises on its territory without the consent of the guarantor countries.

Ukraine requested its membership at the 2008 NATO summit, where they agreed to start negotiations on the terms of joining the alliance.

But it would join the EU

On March 7, the 27 member states of the European Union unanimously agreed to ask the European Commission to evaluate Ukraine’s application for membership of the European Union. After the start of the Russian invasion, Zelensky asked the EU to allow its accession in a quick way, which has been reduced by this time.

In the first round of talks, Russia declared itself against any alliance and asked Ukraine to refrain from joining “any bloc.”

His position has clearly changed. Now that Kiev has refused to join NATO, Moscow seems ready to accept their EU membership.

At a meeting in Istanbul, Ukraine once again called for a guarantee of entry into the European Union.

Interference in case of attack

One of the biggest advances in the talks seems to be Russia’s recognition of the possibility of Ukraine guaranteeing the security of Ukraine in exchange for not joining NATO.

What does this mean? Kiev wants to take a firm, written commitment from various forces to intervene in its defense and to supply weapons in the event of a new attack within its borders.

The Russian delegation said it would study Ukraine’s proposals “in the near future” and submit a report to Putin, after which it would respond.

According to Ukrainian negotiators, the mechanism will be similar to the mechanism provided for in Article 5 of NATO: “An attack on one member of the Alliance is considered an act of violence against all members and is worth retaliation.”

Ukraine insists that if re-attacked, Kiev can request consultations with the countries involved within three days, and if the issue is not resolved through diplomatic channels, it will have the military assistance of the signatory parties, including the declaration of an exclusion zone. aerial.

Air exclusion was a major frustrating demand of Ukrainians for the international community. None of the countries supported this demand for fear that the conflict might escalate into a nuclear attack.

Which countries would be the “guarantor of security” in Ukraine?

Ukraine has been proving this situation for weeks. In several interviews, Ukrainians have named candidate countries to sign the guarantees they seek for peace.

There is no “official” list of countries at this time. What we do know for sure are the 11 countries that the Ukrainian delegation came to the negotiating table:

Ukraine is open to more countries joining the initiative and is asking all of them to make a commitment as well as guarantee their entry into the EU.

It seemed like a tough condition for Russia, but after the meeting in Turkey, Russia limited itself to giving “security guarantees” to Ukraine on a “practical level.”

However, the Russian delegation made it clear who had the last word, adding that they would study Ukraine’s proposals “in the near future” and submit a report to Putin, after which they would respond. Agency TASS.

Is there any country that has confirmed that it will sign?

It seems that Russia and Ukraine left the ball in the foreground of the other countries in the foreground. There is no official attachment at this time. Although most of the countries mentioned by Ukraine have expressed their support for the conflict, with sanctions against Russia and with military and humanitarian aid, no one has officially mentioned the issue, nor has it so far assured that it will take part in a similar agreement. .

As the Financial Times reported on March 7, this proposal by Ukraine has surprised Western allies who question its validity. A Western government source admitted to the FT that the issue was a “topic of conversation between international partners”, but assured that until the “terms” of the agreement were determined, it would be difficult to say “yes or no”. To conclude how it will work and which countries will be part of it.

Crimea and Donbass, a separate case

While Crimea and the conflict in Donbas were the cause of the current situation, the Ukrainian delegation is in favor of removing this acute issue from the ongoing negotiations to achieve a ceasefire. Russia has demanded recognition of the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia and the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics”, located in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine and recognized by Russia. Ukraine has refused to accept any agreement that calls into question its borders and territorial integrity.

Ukraine is now offering to move forward and negotiate the situation in Crimea despite a possible 15-year ceasefire agreement with Russia. They also offer a commitment that Ukraine “will not use force to liberate territories” that would not fall outside the agreement on security guarantees in which other countries would be involved.

Podoliak directly referred to Crimea when he spoke about these long-term talks, but he did not mention Donbass, where Russia now wants to focus its attack. Earlier, the Ukrainian delegation argued that the status of these territories should be discussed face to face between Zelensky and Putin.

The Russian delegation has not yet commented on how the issue will be handled in the talks. But according to Elysee sources quoted by EFE, Vladimir Putin in a telephone conversation with Emmanuel Macron assured him that he did not want to give up military goals in Ukraine, which Russia is now doing on the Donbas and which also includes the besieged Mariupol.

Will Putin and Zelensky meet?

After the first day of talks in Turkey, the meeting of the two presidents seems closer than ever. However, the Russian delegation made it clear that before they could sit down, everything had to be signed and well-tied.

Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky explained that the meeting would be possible only if the agreement was drafted and approved by the negotiators and signed by the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine. Medinsky recalled that this point is difficult to reach, because the countries involved must also sign as a guarantor of Ukraine’s security.

“Only then will it be possible to organize a meeting between the heads of state to sign this agreement,” he assured.

And also a referendum

Refusing to join NATO and creating the conditions for a neutral Ukraine will require constitutional changes and a referendum to approve the country.

Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO is enshrined in its constitution and cannot be changed in a state of war. According to AFP, the constitutional amendments must be approved in two sessions of parliament by 450 to at least 300 votes and approved by the Constitutional Court.

Ukrainian chief negotiator David Arahamia also strongly supports Zelensky’s idea of ​​submitting the agreement to a referendum for ratification. The negotiator added that this could be done only after the full withdrawal of Russian troops.

34th day of the Ukraine war