The IMF raises Spain’s 2023 growth forecast, but lowers 2024

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GDP would thus increase by 1.5% this year and 2% in 2024, compared to the 1.1% and 2.4% announced in the January forecasts. However, Spain remains the absolute leader among the major eurozone countries in terms of GDP growth.

He International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated on Tuesday that the Spanish economy it will grow 1.5% this year, four-tenths more than previously expected. However, the expected growth for Spain in 2024 has fallen by four tenths to 2%. Both figures are above the average for the eurozone, which will grow 0.8% this year (one tenth more than previously estimated) and 1.4% next year (two tenths less).

The report of economic outlook It was published as part of the spring meetings the institution is celebrating this week in Washington and is an update of the latest figures presented last January. The study estimates the evolution of inflation, which will gradually decrease in Spain from 8.3% in 2022 to 4.3% this year, while falling to 3.2% in 2024.

However, the interest rate hikes of the European Central Bank are not expected to have any negative effects on the Spanish labor market and unemployment is expected to fall further.

According to the IMF, unemployment will fall by three-tenths in 2023 compared to 2022, to 12.6%, and another two-tenths next year (to 12.4%). A figure that is still much higher than the eurozone average (6.8% this year).

“We assume that the global economy will recover from what has happened in recent years, from the pandemic and also from the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” IMF research director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters. worsen when there are new financial problems.

Due to the “financial turmoil of the past month and a half” at the IMF, they are concerned “that this could lead to a stronger and stronger slowdown if financial conditions deteriorate significantly,” he said.

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Source: EITB

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