Experts argue – who is behind the attack on the Kremlin? A search for clues

Two drones headed for the Kremlin on Wednesday evening and exploded just above the rooftops of the government district in Moscow. Footage circulating online shows one drone bursting into a ball of flame as it crashes into the Kremlin dome, and another blown to bits when it hit a flagpole displaying the Russian tricolor flag (see video above).

The following questions hover over these millions of shared scenes: Who is responsible? Because the consequences of the incident can be enormous.

Nobody wants it to be
“We consider this a planned terrorist attack and an attack on the president ahead of the May 9 Victory Day Parade,” Russia’s presidential office said after the incident. Ukraine, on the other hand, asks the world public the following question: why? “It doesn’t solve any military problem,” say Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his confidants.

Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Peskov even sees the US behind the “attack”: “We know very well that decisions about such actions and such terrorist attacks are not made in Kiev, but in Washington,” Russian state media quote Vladimir Putin’s confidant as saying.

The US government calls the allegations “ridiculous”. “The United States had nothing to do with it. We don’t even know exactly what happened here,” said National Security Council communications director John Kirby. And further: “Mr. Peskow is lying.” All parties remain guilty of evidence for their statements.

What is certain is that Ukraine has a well-informed secret service apparatus – supported by the US and other countries. It should have been known that Putin was not in the Kremlin at the time of the attack. Which almost rules out an attempt on his life. Experts agree that the explosive charges carried would have been too small for this.

But what is also self-evident is that Ukraine is capable of carrying out such military operations. “Ukraine has drones with such a range,” Russia expert Gerhard Mangott told several media outlets.

The General Staff of Ukraine on January 27 officially announced the creation of a military drone unit to fight against Russia. The Washington Post counted at least 27 drone strikes in Russia at the end of March. Spectacular destruction of Russian tank farms has recently caused a stir. In addition, a US data breach of top secret information revealed that Kiev was already planning a drone attack on Moscow on the anniversary of the Russian invasion in February. But Washington intervened.

However, according to the current status, the drones that were heading for the Kremlin cannot be assigned to Ukraine. In addition, they appear relatively small compared to the Kremlin’s dome. Drones of this size normally cannot fly hundreds of miles.

What speaks for Russian staging?
The renowned Institute for War Studies (ISW) assumes a staging by Moscow. The basic aim of the campaign is to generate a broader support for the war among the population. The attack on the Kremlin makes it seem closer and more “existential.”

Wider mobilization is needed due to Ukraine’s imminent counter-offensive as Russia faces difficult war months. According to the American think tank, it is “extremely unlikely” that two drones would penetrate multiple air defense rings and explode directly over the heart of the Kremlin.

Since the beginning of the year, Russia has significantly strengthened its air defenses with Pantsir anti-aircraft systems. Also on the roofs of Moscow – as geolocated images show. In addition, the incident happened in the middle of the night and was still captured on film in stunning quality. Apparently from several people, some from elevated positions, but also from surveillance cameras.

Russia recently communicated in an extremely clumsy and uncoordinated manner in the face of military defeats. It often took a very long time before all ministries had found a ‘line’. According to the ISW, the immediate and coordinated Russian response to the incident suggests that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political impact overshadowed the embarrassment of hitting the Kremlin.

The Kremlin has also tried in the past to portray Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia’s territorial integrity. The White House also refers to Russia’s history of so-called false flag operations. Russia’s highly influential military blogger bubble has already taken the bait. Opinion leaders are already calling for retaliation and a tougher stance on Ukraine.

Russia expert suspects Ukrainian masterminds
The historian and Russia expert Peter Ruggenthaler, on the other hand, sees a symbolic message from Ukraine. Kiev wants to show Moscow what the Ukrainian armed forces are now capable of. “It is also willing to accept the risk of a counter-attack against Kiev and the center of power in Kiev – because it feels safe,” the Russia expert said in an interview with krone.at.

Meanwhile, Russia began attacking major cities in Ukraine early Thursday morning with drones. Air raid sirens and a series of explosions broke the night’s silence in the center of Kiev, local journalists report. The explosions shook buildings and shattered windows. There were also attacks in the port city of Odessa.

The words “For Moscow” and “For the Kremlin” were scrawled on the wreckage of the drones, the Nexta news agency reported. The propaganda letters “Z” and “V” are capital letters.

Whoever is behind the drone attack on the Kremlin, Ruggenthaler and other experts agree on one thing: We are now in a new, more dangerous phase of the war.