Current policies will lead to global warming of 2.7 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. One third of the world’s population would then have to live in temperatures that are unusual for human existence. Living outside the “human climatic niche” means more disease and more mortality.
To date, climate change has displaced 600 million people from the “human climate niche”. If the temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius, 14 percent would be affected.
The research team led by Timothy Lenton of the University of Exeter (UK) defined the temperature range in which most people lived in the past as a “human climatic niche”. For example, livestock can be kept and useful plants can sprout.
Video: United Nations predicts heat records
Global average temperature rise of up to 2.7 degrees Celsius possible
Under different climate scenarios, the researchers examined how many people will be living in regions with temperatures outside this human climate niche by the next turn of the century. At the current most likely temperature trend (plus 2.7 degrees Celsius on the global average), that would be one third of the nine billion people who are then projected to inhabit the earth.
For every 0.3 degrees Celsius rise in temperature avoided, 350 million fewer people would be affected. If the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius were met, it would be “only” 14 percent.
Source: Krone
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