Heat waves: these are the worst case scenarios

In the worst case, heat waves in Europe could exceed previous records by up to three degrees. This is the conclusion of a study by researchers at ETH Zurich, which was published on Tuesday in the journal ‘Nature Communications’.

This would amply exceed the intensity of the current heat wave.

The scientists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich looked specifically at the worst-case scenarios, research director Erich Fischer explained to the Keystone-SDA news agency.

When the conditions are right, it gets even hotter
The result: If certain meteorological conditions coincide, a heat wave in the Paris region could exceed the previous heat record by two to three degrees. In the Chicago area, even heat waves of six to seven degrees above the previous record would be possible.

Records are already being broken every day. The South Tyrolean meteorologist Dieter Peterlin reported on Friday on X (formerly Twitter) that a new maximum temperature of 15.4 degrees Celsius was measured at the highest weather station in the region:

“It’s not about being alarmist. These are very unlikely scenarios,” Fischer emphasises. It is about creating a new planning base. “Government agencies or private companies should carefully test whether our healthcare systems, such as retirement homes and hospitals, and infrastructure such as power or transportation systems, are prepared for these events,” says the scientist.

Record heat in Canada leads to worst case study
According to Fischer, the reason for the research was the record heat wave in Canada in 2021. In the Canadian city of Lytton, temperatures reached a maximum of 49.6 degrees Celsius – about five degrees more than ever before. The heat wave led to numerous health emergencies, heat-related deaths and wildfires. It also affected infrastructure, particularly electricity supply, as high demand for air conditioning and refrigeration systems led to power outages.

“We tend to adapt to the worst extremes our parents or grandparents experienced,” Fischer said. However, according to the researcher, the risks due to climate change today differ from those during the observation period. “Measures are often only taken after such extreme events,” says Fischer. That has to change.

In the study, the researchers therefore state that it is important to prepare for so-called ‘black swans’. In the stock market, a black swan is an event that is highly unlikely, but does happen. “We have to think the unthinkable,” Fischer said.