Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady expects the Ukrainian counter-offensive to reach its peak in the coming weeks. “Ultimately, this campaign of attrition is about which party has the most reserves,” Gady wrote on Platform X (formerly Twitter) on Monday.
Until now, the focus has been far too much on Ukrainian breakthroughs through the Russian defenses and far too little on whether Ukraine will have sufficient forces to penetrate deep into the occupied territories after breaching the defenses, said Gady, who responsible for things, among other things, the Institute for International Strategic Studies (IISS) in London is working on Deutschlandfunk on Monday. “And here we don’t really know if Ukraine would still have enough troops, even if they broke through the individual defense points very quickly now.”
According to Gady, the next three to four weeks will be decisive to what extent Ukraine can strategically exploit the successes of recent days. “After that, ammunition consumption and the slow wear and tear of troops will likely lead the forces to the peak of this offensive,” he wrote on X.
The first Russian line of defense has been breached
Ukraine has been fighting off a Russian invasion for over 18 months with massive Western aid. About three months ago, Kiev launched a counter-offensive that progressed slowly. Kiev has achieved successes in recent days. Accordingly, the first Russian line of defense in the Zaporizhia region has been breached.
Ratio of losses more important than territorial gains
Commenting on the recent Ukrainian victories, Gady wrote that it had always been clear that sooner or later the Russian defenses would be breached. They are meant to weaken Ukraine, not repel it. “In a war of attrition like the one taking place now, the exact ratio of the losses on both sides is more important in the long run than the gains in territory,” Gady continued. Here, however, the data is too incomplete for a conclusion; he assumes “considerable losses” on both sides.
The war remains very bloody
According to the military expert, the conflict will continue even after the offensive. “This war will certainly continue for the next year and this war will continue to be very bloody,” Gady said on Deutschlandfunk.
Source: Krone
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